24 October 2026, 13:30 UTC

1. FC Köln vs FC Schalke 04 Bundesliga prediction & result

RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne
Referee: Harm Osmers, Germany
Full time0 – 0

Final score: 1. FC Köln 0-0 FC Schalke 04.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% 1. FC Köln, 31% draw, 32% FC Schalke 04 — fair odds of 2.70, 3.23 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

1. FC Köln at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

1. FC Köln3%Draw94%FC Schalke 043%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

43'
🔁Soufiane El-Faouziout: Janik Bachmann
43'
🔁Robin Gosensout: Vitalie Becker
Tom Krauß
45+2'
🔁Mikey Mooreout: Luca Waldschmidt
68'
71'
Junior Dina Ebimbe
🔁Tom Kraußout: Paul Okon-Engstler
80'
🔁Said El Malaout: Reigan Heskey
80'
Luka Lochoshvili
81'
83'
Vitalie Becker
89'
Hasan Kuruçay
🔁Linton Mainaout: Jan Thielmann
90'
🔁Luka Lochoshviliout: Joel Schmied
90'

Match stats — 1. FC Köln vs FC Schalke 04

62%Possession38%
14Shots9
5On target1
6Corners5
1.29xG0.66

Goals against chances

1. FC Köln0 from 1.29 xGless than the chances were worth
FC Schalke 040 from 0.66 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

1. FC Köln 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. SchwäbeG
  • 28S. SebulonsenD
  • 22Jahmai Simpson-PuseyD
  • 24L. LochoshviliD
  • 3B. SosaD
  • 8Í. Bergmann JóhannessonM
  • 5T. KraußM
  • 37L. MainaM
  • 47M. MooreM
  • 10S. El MalaM
  • 30M. BülterF
Substitutes
  • 17A. Castro-MontesM
  • 11Reigan HeskeyF
  • 14G. MensahD
  • 23Paul Michael Junior Okon-EngstlerM
  • 2J. SchmiedD
  • 29J. ThielmannM
  • 7L. WaldschmidtF
  • 20R. ZielerG
  • 19M. El MalaF
Coach: René Wagner
FC Schalke 04 3-4-2-1
  • 1L. KariusG
  • 5T. BeckerD
  • 25N. KatićD
  • 4H. KuruçayD
  • 29J. Dina EbimbeM
  • 23S. El-FaouziM
  • 13S. TanakaM
  • 8R. GosensM
  • 20J. AdamuM
  • 24A. AouchicheM
  • 7Hwang Hee-ChanF
Substitutes
  • 33Vitalie BeckerD
  • 10E. DžekoF
  • 11B. LasmeF
  • 22K. MüllerG
  • 35J. NdiayeF
  • 27F. PorathM
  • 38L. VozarM
  • 14J. BachmannM
  • 43M. AyhanD
Coach: M. Muslić

Form going into 1. FC Köln vs FC Schalke 04

1. FC Köln

Bundesliga

  • L0-1away to Eintracht Frankfurt16 October 2026
  • W2-1Borussia Mönchengladbach11 October 2026

FC Schalke 04

Bundesliga

  • L0-1FSV Mainz 0517 October 2026
  • L1-2away to SC Freiburg11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
151. FC Köln92341014-49
17FC Schalke 049135511-66

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: 1. FC Köln vs FC Schalke 04

1. FC Köln and FC Schalke 04 have met 7 times in the records we hold, 1. FC Köln has won 4 of them to FC Schalke 04's 0, with 3 drawn.

The record

They drew 0–0 at 1. FC Köln on 24 Oct 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
1. FC Köln430104
FC Schalke 04034410

Between them these 7 meetings produced 14 goals, an average of 2.00 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 24 Oct 2026
    Bundesliga    1. FC Köln 0–0 FC Schalke 04
  • 9 Feb 2025
    2. Bundesliga    1. FC Köln 1–0 FC Schalke 04
  • 1 Sep 2024
    2. Bundesliga    FC Schalke 04 1–3 1. FC Köln
  • 29 Jan 2023
    Bundesliga    FC Schalke 04 0–0 1. FC Köln
  • 7 Aug 2022
    Bundesliga    1. FC Köln 3–1 FC Schalke 04
  • 27 Jan 2022
    Friendlies Clubs    1. FC Köln 2–2 FC Schalke 04
  • 22 May 2021
    Bundesliga    1. FC Köln 1–0 FC Schalke 04

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, 1. FC Köln's attack rates 38% above FC Schalke 04's, and FC Schalke 04 concede 25% fewer than 1. FC Köln. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
1. FC Köln0.761.08
FC Schalke 040.550.81

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

The result against the call

1. FC Köln and FC Schalke 04 drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for 1. FC Köln at 37% and given a draw 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 1.29–0.66.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave 1. FC Köln a 26.4% chance to finish in the bottom two: 19.2% after a win, 28.4% after a draw, 32.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 28.4%, 2 points higher than before the match.

For FC Schalke 04 the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 18.8% going in: 13.1% after a win, 18.2% after a draw, 23.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 18.2%, 0.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on 1. FC Köln v FC Schalke 04 has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 34% / 29% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 37% / 31% / 32%: the biggest move is FC Schalke 04's chance of winning, down 5 points.

  1. 1. FC Köln win37%▲ +3
  2. Draw31%▲ +2
  3. FC Schalke 04 win32%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.