SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: SC Paderborn 07 1-0 Hamburger SV.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% SC Paderborn 07, 30% draw, 31% Hamburger SV — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
SC Paderborn 07 at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 15N. NollG
- 21J. ter HorstD
- 25T. SchellerD
- 22M. HansenD
- 17L. CurdaM
- 28L. UlrichM
- 5S. CastañedaM
- 40G. VidovićM
- 23R. ObermairM
- 30S. MarinoF
- 27S. TiggesF
- 6T. BaackM
- 20F. GötzeD
- 11S. MichelF
- 2Ruben MüllerD
- 9R. PhilippeF
- 18M. PieringerF
- 1M. SchubertG
- 3Jonah Benedict StickerD
- 38D. ZeitlerF
- 1Daniel Heuer FernandesG
- 43S. NandjaD
- 33S. BornauwD
- 17W. OmariD
- 7Z. El OuahdiM
- 5M. AdelineM
- 4B. NadirM
- 28M. MuheimM
- 3D. Møller WolfeM
- 15Y. PoulsenF
- 20Fábio VieiraF
- 38Alexander Røssing-LelesiitF
- 19Otto Emerson StangeF
- 12S. TangvikG
- 9T. MoffiF
- 6A. Sambi LokongaM
- 37L. LemkeD
- 11A. GrønbækM
- 48J. Bissi MouelleD
- 22Kofi Jeremy AmoakoM
Form going into SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV
SC Paderborn 07
Bundesliga
- D2-2away to Werder Bremen17 October 2026
- L0-2VfB Stuttgart10 October 2026
Hamburger SV
Bundesliga
- W1-0VfB Stuttgart17 October 2026
- W3-2away to 1899 Hoffenheim10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07
Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07 have met 7 times in the records we hold, SC Paderborn 07 has won 4 of them to Hamburger SV's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
SC Paderborn 07 won the last one 1–0 on 24 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 12 |
| SC Paderborn 07 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 8 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 20 goals, an average of 2.86 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 24 Oct 2026
BundesligaSC Paderborn 07 1–0 Hamburger SV - 2 Mar 2025
2. BundesligaSC Paderborn 07 2–0 Hamburger SV - 28 Sep 2024
2. BundesligaHamburger SV 2–2 SC Paderborn 07 - 10 May 2024
2. BundesligaSC Paderborn 07 1–0 Hamburger SV - 9 Dec 2023
2. BundesligaHamburger SV 1–2 SC Paderborn 07 - 5 May 2023
2. BundesligaHamburger SV 2–2 SC Paderborn 07 - 30 Oct 2022
2. BundesligaSC Paderborn 07 2–3 Hamburger SV
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Hamburger SV's attack rates 24% above SC Paderborn 07's, and SC Paderborn 07 concede 22% fewer than Hamburger SV. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV | 0.78 | 1.09 |
| SC Paderborn 07 | 0.63 | 0.85 |
The result against the call
SC Paderborn 07 beat Hamburger SV 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for SC Paderborn 07 at 39%. The goal: Rayan Philippe 88' for SC Paderborn 07. On expected goals it finished 1.21–0.49.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave SC Paderborn 07 a 26.0% chance to finish in the bottom two: 21.1% after a win, 27.1% after a draw, 31.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.1%, 4.9 points lower than before the match.
For Hamburger SV the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 18.0% going in: 12.5% after a win, 18.1% after a draw, 21.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.3%, 3.3 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on SC Paderborn 07 v Hamburger SV has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 45% / 29% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 39% / 30% / 31%: the biggest move is SC Paderborn 07's chance of winning, down 6 points.
- SC Paderborn 07 win39%▼ −6
- Draw30%▲ +1
- Hamburger SV win31%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.