31 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Benfica B vs Chaves Segunda Liga prediction & result

Benfica Campus, Seixal
Referee: Luis Carlos Mateus Filipe
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Benfica B 3-1 Chaves.

Before kick-off the model made it 59% Benfica B, 23% draw, 18% Chaves — fair odds of 1.69, 4.35 and 5.56.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Benfica B at 59%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Benfica B97%Draw3%Chaves0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Tiago Freitasassist: João Fonseca
5'
Peter Edokpolor
8'
9'
•Wilson Tavares
17'
Leandro Santos do Nascimento
21'
⚽Andre Rodriguesassist: Robyn Esajas
36'
Gilberto García
45+1'
mohamed fofana
46'
🔁Leandro Santos do Nascimentoout: Antony Herbert
🔁Nuno Miguel Madeira Fernandes Felixout: Stevan Pedro Dores Manuel
61'
🔁Peter Edokpolorout: Francisco Silva
62'
🔁Anísio Cabralout: Olivio Tomé
63'
68'
🔁Gilberto Garcíaout: João Teixeira
68'
🔁Robyn Esajasout: Pedro Pelágio
68'
🔁Andre Rodriguesout: Marcos André Paulino Maia
🔁Tiago Freitasout: Miguel Figueiredo
72'
87'
🔁mohamed fofanaout: Junior Armando Mendes
⚽Gonçalo Carvalho Moreira
89'
🔁Gonçalo Carvalho Moreiraout: Rui silva
90+1'
90+4'
Aílson Tavares
⚽Olivio Tomé
90+7'

Match stats — Benfica B vs Chaves

48%Possession52%
15Shots8
7On target4
5Corners0

Line-ups

Benfica B 4-3-3
  • 50Diogo FerreiraG
  • 78D. SoaresD
  • 55João Carvalho FonsecaD
  • 33Gabriel IndioD
  • 52João CapuchoD
  • 88Tiago FreitasM
  • 76R. QuintasM
  • 60Nuno FélixM
  • 87Peter EdokpolorF
  • 72A. CabralF
  • 77Gonçalo Carvalho MoreiraF
Substitutes
  • 75L. MartinsD
  • 85Martim Maria FerreiraM
  • 81Stevan ManuelM
  • 53Tiago RodriguesF
  • 79T. SoaresF
  • 91Francisco SilvaF
  • 94Rui SilvaD
  • 71F. ColettaM
  • 73Miguel FigueiredoM
Coach: Nelson Veríssimo
Chaves 4-3-3
  • 1João ValidoG
  • 23Léo AlabáD
  • 34Ricardo AlvesD
  • 14N. AraújoD
  • 3Aarón RomeroD
  • 42Aílson TavaresM
  • 19Gilberto GarcíaM
  • 80mohamed fofanaM
  • 10André RodriguesF
  • 18Wilson TavaresF
  • 7R. EsajasD
Substitutes
  • 6B. EboudjéM
  • 29M. TounkaraD
  • 99GBF
  • 27J. MendesF
  • 17RobertoF
  • 9Marcos MaiaF
  • 16D. YearwoodM
  • 11Pedro PelágioM
  • 8João TeixeiraM
Coach: Vitor Martins

Form going into Benfica B vs Chaves

Benfica B

Segunda Liga

  • D0-0away to Feirense24 October 2026
  • W1-0Felgueiras 193212 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Academica11 September 2026

Chaves

Segunda Liga

  • W2-1Vizela23 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Lusitânia Lourosa11 October 2026
  • L0-4away to Farense4 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Benfica B10622148+620
17Chaves102261121-108

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Benfica B vs Chaves

  • 17 January 2026Benfica B 1–0 ChavesSegunda Liga
  • 10 August 2025Chaves 1–1 Benfica BSegunda Liga
  • 28 February 2025Chaves 1–2 Benfica BSegunda Liga
  • 6 October 2024Benfica B 1–0 ChavesSegunda Liga
  • 25 February 2022Chaves 1–1 Benfica BSegunda Liga
  • 3 October 2021Benfica B 3–1 ChavesSegunda Liga

Leading scorers: Benfica B and Chaves

Benfica B

No player in Segunda Liga's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Chaves

GoalsAssists

  • André Rodrigues10

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Benfica B beat Chaves 3–1. The model had made a win for Benfica B its most likely outcome, at 59%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Tiago Freitas 5' for Benfica B, Andre Rodrigues 21' for Chaves, Gonçalo Carvalho Moreira 89' for Benfica B, Olivio Tomé 90+7' for Benfica B.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Benfica B a 38.9% chance to finish in the top three: 41.2% after a win, 35.3% after a draw, 31.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 41.2%, 2.3 points higher than before the match.

For Chaves the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 34.2% going in: 23.5% after a win, 34.5% after a draw, 36.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 36.4%, 2.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Segunda Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Benfica B v Chaves has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 63% / 21% / 16% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 59% / 23% / 18%: the biggest move is Benfica B's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Benfica B win59%▼ −4
  2. Draw23%▲ +2
  3. Chaves win18%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.