União de Leiria vs AVS Segunda Liga prediction & result
Final score: União de Leiria 2-1 AVS.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% União de Leiria, 26% draw, 32% AVS — fair odds of 2.38, 3.85 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
União de Leiria at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — União de Leiria vs AVS
Line-ups
- 99J. OdehnalG
- 68MagaD
- 44MarceloD
- 16Zé PedroD
- 70H. MasakiF
- 98IbrahimaM
- 6E. KouassiM
- 21JaimeF
- 88Diogo MartinsM
- 29D. LoppyF
- 9Juan MuñozF
- 11Jair da SilvaF
- 7Jose AdjuguF
- 17Pablo FernándezM
- 80Christian JoelG
- 34QuilmaD
- 3Marc BaróD
- 25Diogo AmadoM
- 19A. LottinM
- 18Tharlley Oliveira Da SilvaM
- 1Dani RebolloG
- 97Matheus PivôD
- 3L. RosićD
- 26Bernardo CondeD
- 12L. RivasD
- 70RoniM
- 88F. AlmeidaD
- 80Hiago SantosM
- 30Talles WanderF
- 9Rodrigo PinhoF
- 7Guilherme NeivaF
- 20Ruan AssisF
- 8Jorge MeirelesF
- 49P. PimentelM
- 19Rafael GenuinoF
- 78AndreyM
- 28André SousaD
- 22Diogo BrasidoD
- 6Carlos PonckD
- 4Davi SchuindtD
Form going into União de Leiria vs AVS
União de Leiria
Segunda Liga
- D1-1away to FC Porto B25 October 2026
- L0-2Academica11 October 2026
- D2-2away to Amarante13 September 2026
AVS
Segunda Liga
- W2-1Tondela25 October 2026
- W2-1away to Penafiel9 October 2026
- D0-0Farense13 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | União de Leiria | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 17 |
| 11 | AVS | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: União de Leiria vs AVS
- 11 February 2024AVS 2–1 União de LeiriaSegunda Liga
- 2 September 2023União de Leiria 1–2 AVSSegunda Liga
The result against the call
União de Leiria beat AVS 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for União de Leiria at 42%. The goals: Hiago Souza Lima Santos 26' for AVS, Pablo Fernandez 73' for União de Leiria, Rodrigo Pinho (own goal) 86' for União de Leiria.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave União de Leiria a 7.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 5.1% after a win, 7.8% after a draw, 10.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.1%, 2.8 points lower than before the match.
For AVS the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 18.6% going in: 23.3% after a win, 18.0% after a draw, 14.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 14.4%, 4.2 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Segunda Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on União de Leiria v AVS has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 37% / 26% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 42% / 26% / 32%: the biggest move is União de Leiria's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- União de Leiria win42%▲ +5
- Draw26%=
- AVS win32%▼ −5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.