31 October 2026, 15:30 UTC

Leixoes vs Sporting CP B Segunda Liga prediction & result

Matosinhos
Referee: Gustavo Fernandes Correia
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Leixoes 1-2 Sporting CP B.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Leixoes, 27% draw, 38% Sporting CP B — fair odds of 2.86, 3.70 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sporting CP B at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Leixoes0%Draw4%Sporting CP B96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
⚽Mauro Couto (pen)
21'
Rafael Nel
Matheus Costa
32'
48'
⚽Rafael Nel
🔁Rafael Barbosaout: Fernando Fonseca
64'
🔁Paulinhoout: Ruben Pina
65'
🔁Simaozinhoout: Serif Nhaga
65'
72'
🔁Paulo Cardosoout: Bidu
⚽Bryan Rochezassist: Serif Nhaga
77'
🔁José Manuel Bica Reisout: Luccas Paraizo
78'
78'
🔁Rodrigo Rodriguesout: Ivanildo da Silva Mendes
Ruben Pina
82'
83'
🔁Rafael Nelout: Rafael Mota
🔁Claudio Vtor Rodrigues Araujoout: Arthur Baggio
86'
João Assunção
90+3'

Match stats — Leixoes vs Sporting CP B

54%Possession46%
20Shots15
4On target9
6Corners6

Line-ups

Leixoes 4-4-2
  • 51I. StefanovićG
  • 77PaulinhoD
  • 14Alysson SilvaD
  • 4Matheus CostaD
  • 15SimãozinhoD
  • 7Salvador AgraF
  • 22Cláudio Vítor Rodrigues AraújoM
  • 80João AssunçãoM
  • 10Rafael BarbosaM
  • 9BicaF
  • 35B. RochezF
Substitutes
  • 71KaiqueF
  • 33Luccas FeitosaF
  • 88Rúben PinaF
  • 75JamersonD
  • 21Agustin De ArmasM
  • 17Arthur BaggioF
  • 44S. CommeyD
  • 30Serif NhagaD
  • 2Fernando FonsecaD
Coach: Fangueiro
Sporting CP B 4-2-3-1
  • 99Francisco SilvaG
  • 70Salvador BlopaD
  • 59Kauã OliveiraM
  • 95Lucas TaiboD
  • 50Rodrigo DiasD
  • 40M. TanlongoM
  • 96Samuel JustoM
  • 76Rodrigo RodriguesM
  • 78Mauro CoutoF
  • 87Paulo CardosoM
  • 9Rafael Ferreira NelF
Substitutes
  • 91M. AlmeidaF
  • 88BiduF
  • 82Gabriel SilvaF
  • 46W. LodmellG
  • 85Rafael MotaD
  • 62I. da Silva MendesM
  • 83Z. BafdiliM
  • 42L. PetricG
  • 63Rafael CamachoF
Coach: Tiago Fernandes

Form going into Leixoes vs Sporting CP B

Leixoes

Segunda Liga

  • L0-4away to Academica24 October 2026
  • L1-2FC Porto B10 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Torreense11 September 2026

Sporting CP B

Segunda Liga

  • W3-0Portimonense24 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Vizela10 October 2026
  • L1-2Lusitânia Lourosa14 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Leixoes103251317-411
2Sporting CP B10712168+822

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Leixoes vs Sporting CP B

  • 28 February 2026Sporting CP B 0–1 LeixoesSegunda Liga
  • 5 October 2025Leixoes 0–4 Sporting CP BSegunda Liga
  • 18 March 2018Leixoes 1–1 Sporting CP BSegunda Liga
  • 29 October 2017Sporting CP B 1–1 LeixoesSegunda Liga
  • 19 March 2017Leixoes 1–2 Sporting CP BSegunda Liga
  • 23 October 2016Sporting CP B 2–1 LeixoesSegunda Liga

Leading scorers: Leixoes and Sporting CP B

Leixoes

No player in Segunda Liga's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Sporting CP B

GoalsAssists

  • Mauro Couto10
  • Paulo Cardoso10

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sporting CP B won 2–1 at Leixoes. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Sporting CP B at 38%. The goals: Mauro Couto (penalty) 8' for Sporting CP B, Rafael Nel 48' for Sporting CP B, Bryan Rochez 77' for Leixoes.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Leixoes a 19.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 14.5% after a win, 20.1% after a draw, 23.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 23.9%, 4 points higher than before the match.

For Sporting CP B the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 46.0% going in: 51.5% after a win, 45.0% after a draw, 40.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 51.5%, 5.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Segunda Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Leixoes v Sporting CP B has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 42% / 27% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 35% / 27% / 38%: the biggest move is Leixoes's chance of winning, down 7 points.

  1. Leixoes win35%▼ −7
  2. Draw27%=
  3. Sporting CP B win38%▲ +7

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.