Portimonense vs Torreense Segunda Liga prediction & result
Final score: Portimonense 0-0 Torreense.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Portimonense, 29% draw, 37% Torreense — fair odds of 2.94, 3.45 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Torreense at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Portimonense vs Torreense
Line-ups
- 1DuduG
- 6S. NevesD
- 8João CasimiroM
- 4Italo CabelinhoD
- 2EdneyF
- 15XavierM
- 80Felipe FaveroM
- 17João ReisD
- 18Tiago FerreiraF
- 93Welinton JúniorF
- 7Danio DjassiF
- 21Yanis da RochaM
- 10S. NakajimaF
- 9S. Yépié YépiéM
- 73Marlon JúniorD
- 36Thauan LaraD
- 3Jarleysom AmurimD
- 65WellingtonG
- 11Diogo CabralF
- 19Midana CassamaF
- 1Lucas PaesG
- 22David BrunoD
- 4Volnei FeltesD
- 5M. DiadieM
- 23Javi VázquezD
- 26André SimõesM
- 8Alejandro AlfaroM
- 11Manu PozoF
- 33João MarquesF
- 7D. JeanM
- 17M. DrammehF
- 2StopiraD
- 90Vando FélixF
- 3Juan María AlcedoD
- 45J. MutomboD
- 6A. OudrhiriM
- 10CostinhaF
- 20Carlos ReinaM
- 21Nuha JattaM
- 29L. QuinteroF
Form going into Portimonense vs Torreense
Portimonense
Segunda Liga
- L0-3away to Sporting CP B24 October 2026
- W2-1away to Amarante10 October 2026
- L0-2Tondela12 September 2026
Torreense
Segunda Liga
- W1-0Amarante26 October 2026
- L0-1away to Tondela10 October 2026
- D0-0Leixoes11 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Portimonense | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 14 |
| 13 | Torreense | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Portimonense vs Torreense
- 16 March 2026Torreense 1–0 PortimonenseSegunda Liga
- 30 October 2025Portimonense 0–1 TorreenseSegunda Liga
- 16 February 2025Portimonense 1–2 TorreenseSegunda Liga
- 13 September 2024Torreense 3–2 PortimonenseSegunda Liga
Leading scorers: Portimonense and Torreense
Portimonense
GoalsAssists
- Danio Djassi11
- Welinton Júnior10
Torreense
No player in Segunda Liga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Portimonense and Torreense drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Torreense at 37% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Portimonense a 26.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 21.2% after a win, 26.0% after a draw, 30.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 26.0%.
For Torreense the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 7.6% going in: 4.5% after a win, 7.8% after a draw, 9.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 7.8%.
Read from our Segunda Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Portimonense v Torreense has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 31% / 29% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 34% / 29% / 37%: the biggest move is Portimonense's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Portimonense win34%▲ +3
- Draw29%=
- Torreense win37%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.