Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Kasımpaşa 2-2 Beşiktaş.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Kasımpaşa, 28% draw, 42% Beşiktaş — fair odds of 3.33, 3.57 and 2.38.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Beşiktaş at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Andreas GianniotisG
- 2Cláudio WinckD
- 4Adem ArousD
- 27Matei IlieD
- 45Ayberk KarapoD
- 26Kerem DemirbayM
- 17Jesurun Rak-SakyiM
- 10Haris HajradinovićM
- 51Elson MendesM
- 7Ali Yavuz KolM
- 9Adrian BenedyczakF
- 50Güven YalçınF
- 19Marcus RaffertyM
- 5Jakob JessenD
- 11Thiemoko DiarraF
- 25Ali Emre YanarG
- 18Ömer BayramD
- 30Ahmet Taha DağbaşıD
- 8Atakan MujdeM
- 66Emirhan BozM
- 1Alexander NübelG
- 62Amir MurilloD
- 12Emmanuel AgbadouD
- 53Emirhan TopçuD
- 33Rıdvan YılmazD
- 6Salih ÖzcanM
- 18Václav ČernýM
- 15Junior OlaitanM
- 4Wilfred NdidiM
- 19Leandro TrossardM
- 28Dušan VlahovićF
- 29İlhan FakılıF
- 9Hyeon-gyu OhF
- 35Tiago DjalóD
- 22Taylan BulutD
- 7Milot RashicaM
- 80Doğan AlemdarG
- 58Yasin ÖzcanD
- 11Kassoum OuattaraD
- 8Kartal Kayra YılmazM
Form going into Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş
Kasımpaşa
Süper Lig
- W1-0away to Eyüpspor24 October 2026
- W4-1Samsunspor18 October 2026
- L1-3away to Galatasaray9 October 2026
Beşiktaş
Süper Lig
- W2-0Başakşehir26 October 2026
- L0-2away to Trabzonspor19 October 2026
- W2-1Kocaelispor11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Kasımpaşa | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 20 |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa
Beşiktaş and Kasımpaşa have met 7 times in the records we hold, Kasımpaşa has won 3 of them to Beşiktaş's 1, with 3 drawn.
The record
They drew 2–2 at Kasımpaşa on 1 Nov 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beşiktaş | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 13 |
| Kasımpaşa | 3 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 9 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 22 goals, an average of 3.14 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 1 Nov 2026
Süper LigKasımpaşa 2–2 Beşiktaş - 19 Mar 2026
Süper LigBeşiktaş 2–1 Kasımpaşa - 26 Oct 2025
Süper LigKasımpaşa 1–1 Beşiktaş - 7 Apr 2025
Süper LigKasımpaşa 1–1 Beşiktaş - 2 Nov 2024
Süper LigBeşiktaş 1–3 Kasımpaşa - 26 May 2024
Süper LigKasımpaşa 2–1 Beşiktaş - 5 Jan 2024
Süper LigBeşiktaş 1–3 Kasımpaşa
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Beşiktaş's attack rates 40% above Kasımpaşa's, and Beşiktaş concede 8% fewer than Kasımpaşa. That gives Beşiktaş the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş
Kasımpaşa
GoalsAssists
- A. Benedyczak72
Beşiktaş
GoalsAssists
- D. Vlahović90
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Beşiktaş at 42% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: L. Trossard 28' for Beşiktaş, D. Vlahovic 47' for Beşiktaş, C. Winck 60' for Kasımpaşa, M. Rafferty 87' for Kasımpaşa. On expected goals it finished 1.20–1.28.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Kasımpaşa a 8.4% chance to finish in the top four: 11.6% after a win, 7.7% after a draw, 5.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 7.7%, 0.7 points lower than before the match.
For Beşiktaş the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 62.6% going in: 67.7% after a win, 61.2% after a draw, 56.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 61.2%, 1.4 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Süper Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Kasımpaşa v Beşiktaş has moved
First published on 18 Oct at 28% / 27% / 45% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 30% / 28% / 42%: the biggest move is Beşiktaş's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Kasımpaşa win30%▲ +2
- Draw28%▲ +1
- Beşiktaş win42%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.