Başakşehir vs Samsunspor Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Başakşehir 5-2 Samsunspor.
Before kick-off the model made it 62% Başakşehir, 21% draw, 17% Samsunspor — fair odds of 1.61, 4.76 and 5.88.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Başakşehir at 62%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Başakşehir vs Samsunspor
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 16Muhammed ŞengezerG
- 33Michał KarbownikD
- 23Emin BayramD
- 27Ousseynou BaD
- 38Saba KharebashviliD
- 8Olivier KemenM
- 18Jakub KałuzińskiM
- 70Andreas Skov OlsenM
- 14Eldor ShomurodovM
- 77Ivan BrnićM
- 9Davie SelkeF
- 91Bertuğ YıldırımF
- 7Yusuf SarıF
- 11Abbosbek FayzullaevM
- 4Onur ErgünM
- 10Edin VišćaM
- 98Deniz DilmenG
- 15Hamza GürelerD
- 42Ömer Ali ŞahinerM
- 20Umut GüneşM
- 25Bilal BayazitG
- 16Strahinja ErakovićD
- 34Gabriele GuarinoD
- 3Igor DrapińskiD
- 2Josafat MendesM
- 5Celil YükselM
- 4Elliot WattM
- 42Antoine SekongoM
- 17Logi TomassonM
- 10Tanguy CoulibalyF
- 18Mohamed BayoF
- 19Oskar ØhlenschlaegerF
- 7Elayis TavsanF
- 15Jaures AssoumouF
- 8Samed OnurM
- 30Saikuba JarjuF
- 1Okan KocukG
- 29Haluk Mustafa TanD
- 44Yusuf Efe YurtseverD
- 23Enes AlbakD
Form going into Başakşehir vs Samsunspor
Başakşehir
Süper Lig
- L0-2away to Beşiktaş26 October 2026
- W2-1Gaziantep FK18 October 2026
- D0-0away to Konyaspor11 October 2026
Samsunspor
Süper Lig
- L1-2Amed24 October 2026
- L1-4away to Kasımpaşa18 October 2026
- L0-3Trabzonspor10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Başakşehir | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 17 |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 26 | -15 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Başakşehir vs Samsunspor
Başakşehir and Samsunspor have met 7 times in the records we hold, Başakşehir has won 5 of them to Samsunspor's 1, with 1 drawn.
The record
Başakşehir won the last one 5–2 on 1 Nov 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Başakşehir | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 4 |
| Samsunspor | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 15 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 19 goals, an average of 2.71 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 1 Nov 2026
Süper LigBaşakşehir 5–2 Samsunspor - 9 May 2026
Süper LigBaşakşehir 3–0 Samsunspor - 14 Dec 2025
Süper LigSamsunspor 0–2 Başakşehir - 1 Feb 2025
Süper LigBaşakşehir 4–0 Samsunspor - 18 Sep 2024
Süper LigSamsunspor 2–0 Başakşehir - 3 Mar 2024
Süper LigBaşakşehir 1–0 Samsunspor - 22 Oct 2023
Süper LigSamsunspor 0–0 Başakşehir
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Başakşehir's attack rates 42% above Samsunspor's, and Başakşehir concede 31% fewer than Samsunspor. That gives Başakşehir the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Başakşehir | 1.04 | 1.06 |
| Samsunspor | 0.73 | 1.53 |
Leading scorers: Başakşehir and Samsunspor
Başakşehir
GoalsAssists
- E. Shomurodov81
Samsunspor
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Başakşehir beat Samsunspor 5–2. The model had made a win for Başakşehir its most likely outcome, at 62%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: E. Shomurodov 10' for Başakşehir, T. Coulibaly 22' for Samsunspor, A. Skov Olsen 25' for Başakşehir, E. Bayram 41' for Başakşehir, O. Ba 75' for Başakşehir, E. Tavsan 84' for Samsunspor, A. Fayzullaev 90+1' for Başakşehir. On expected goals it finished 4.21–1.04.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Başakşehir a 12.2% chance to finish in the top four: 13.7% after a win, 10.0% after a draw, 8.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.7%, 1.5 points higher than before the match.
For Samsunspor the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 55.5% going in: 43.6% after a win, 53.1% after a draw, 58.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 58.2%, 2.7 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Süper Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.