1 November 2026, 15:30 UTC

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Rot-Weiß Essen 3. Liga prediction & result

WIRmachenDRUCK Arena, Aspach
Referee: Luca Sambill
Full time0 – 1

Final score: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 0-1 Rot-Weiß Essen.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach, 25% draw, 49% Rot-Weiß Essen — fair odds of 3.85, 4.00 and 2.04.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Rot-Weiß Essen at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach0%Draw4%Rot-Weiß Essen96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

V. Celiktas
6'
Fabian Eisele
15'
35'
⚽Dickson Abiamaassist: Nick Bätzner
🔁V. Celiktasout: Loris Maier
45'
🔁Fabian Eiseleout: Nikos Zografakis
45'
45'
🔁Nick Bätznerout: Marek Janssen
56'
Marek Janssen
75'
🔁Jannik Hofmannout: Michael Kostka
75'
🔁Noah Peschout: Ekin Celebi
🔁Lukas Stoppelout: Marlon Freddy Faß
78'
82'
🔁Lucas Brummeout: Aiman Dardari
88'
Uwe Koschinat
🔁Leon Maierout: Deli Hajdini
88'
88'
🔁Dickson Abiamaout: Luca Bazzoli

Match stats — SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Rot-Weiß Essen

53%Possession47%
7Shots10
2On target2
7Corners5

Line-ups

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. ReuleG
  • 8Jan Elias RahnD
  • 20Leon MaierD
  • 19M. UhlD
  • 21L. MolinariD
  • 5Volkan CeliktasM
  • 16M. KundeM
  • 11T. RossmannM
  • 18N. PollexM
  • 10L. StoppelM
  • 23F. EiseleF
Substitutes
  • 36M. GashiD
  • 9Marlon Freddy FaßF
  • 4F. BleicherM
  • 7D. HajdiniF
  • 27Loris MaierM
  • 6C. MistlM
  • 25A. NurajD
  • 33T. SchulzG
  • 13N. ZografakisF
Coach: Pascal Reinhardt
Rot-Weiß Essen 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. GolzG
  • 37J. HofmannD
  • 15Ben Vincent HüningD
  • 23J. Ríos AlonsoD
  • 19F. BouebariD
  • 22J. SietanM
  • 16R. ReisigM
  • 18D. AbiamaM
  • 25N. BätznerM
  • 11Noah PeschM
  • 14L. BrummeF
Substitutes
  • 32L. BazzoliD
  • 7Aiman DardariF
  • 36J. GnagnonD
  • 20M. JanssenF
  • 2M. KostkaD
  • 43F VasicF
  • 33Eric VerstappenG
  • 35F. WienandG
  • 26E. ÇelebiD
Coach: U. Koschinat

Form going into SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Rot-Weiß Essen

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

3. Liga

  • L1-7away to SV Wehen24 October 2026
  • W3-2Preußen Münster17 October 2026
  • D2-2away to FC Viktoria Köln14 October 2026

Rot-Weiß Essen

3. Liga

  • W1-0SSV Jahn Regensburg23 October 2026
  • L0-1away to FC Ingolstadt 0417 October 2026
  • W2-0Fortuna Köln13 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

3. Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach133371329-1612
3Rot-Weiß Essen138322113+827

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

Rot-Weiß Essen won 1–0 at SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach. The model had made a win for Rot-Weiß Essen its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Dickson Abiama 35' for Rot-Weiß Essen.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach a 77.3% chance to finish in the bottom four: 70.3% after a win, 77.7% after a draw, 80.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 80.9%, 3.6 points higher than before the match.

For Rot-Weiß Essen the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 39.6% going in: 43.7% after a win, 36.3% after a draw, 31.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 43.7%, 4.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 3. Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach v Rot-Weiß Essen has moved

First published on 18 Oct at 27% / 28% / 45% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 26% / 25% / 49%: the biggest move is Rot-Weiß Essen's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach win26%▼ −1
  2. Draw25%▼ −3
  3. Rot-Weiß Essen win49%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.