Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Alanyaspor Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 5-0 Alanyaspor.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Gençlerbirliği S.K., 30% draw, 35% Alanyaspor — fair odds of 2.86, 3.33 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Gençlerbirliği S.K. at 35%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Alanyaspor
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 70İrfan Can EğribayatG
- 15Arda Cagan CelikD
- 90Metehan BaltacıD
- 2ThalissonD
- 3Yiğit Hamza AydarD
- 19Cheikh NiasseM
- 14Adama Malouda TraoréM
- 10Franco TongyaM
- 35Oğulcan ÜlgünM
- 7Tiago GouveiaM
- 9Pedro MendesF
- 83Rafael LuisM
- 48Salih UçanM
- 45Prince MartorF
- 12Victor OrakpoF
- 99Ayaz ÖzcanF
- 23Gökhan AkkanG
- 60Bilal SariD
- 88Fıratcan ÜzümD
- 77Abdurrahim DursunD
- 48Paulo VictorG
- 3Nuno LimaD
- 4Bedirhan ÖzyurtD
- 5Fidan AlitiD
- 94Florent HadergjonajM
- 58MaestroM
- 55Baran Ali GezekM
- 42Gaius MakoutaM
- 11Ruan Pereira DuarteM
- 7Ibrahim KayaF
- 19Iván CédricF
- 10Ianis HagiM
- 12Meschak EliaF
- 88Yusuf ÖzdemirM
- 8Enes KeskinM
- 9Omar Ben AliF
- 23Mert Furkan BayramG
- 26İzzet ÇelikM
- 14Emre DemirM
- 17Arda UsluoğluF
Form going into Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Alanyaspor
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Süper Lig
- L0-2away to Konyaspor25 October 2026
- L0-1Galatasaray17 October 2026
- D2-2Amed10 October 2026
Alanyaspor
Süper Lig
- L1-2Kocaelispor23 October 2026
- L0-3away to Fenerbahçe17 October 2026
- D0-0Erzurumspor FK10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 11 |
| 13 | Alanyaspor | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Alanyaspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Alanyaspor and Gençlerbirliği S.K. have met 6 times in the records we hold, Gençlerbirliği S.K. has won 4 of them to Alanyaspor's 0, with 2 drawn.
The record
Gençlerbirliği S.K. won the last one 5–0 on 2 Nov 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alanyaspor | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 |
| Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 4 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 4 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 16 goals, an average of 2.67 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 2 Nov 2026
Süper LigGençlerbirliği S.K. 5–0 Alanyaspor - 9 Mar 2026
Süper LigAlanyaspor 0–0 Gençlerbirliği S.K. - 4 Oct 2025
Süper LigGençlerbirliği S.K. 2–2 Alanyaspor - 4 Apr 2021
Süper LigAlanyaspor 1–2 Gençlerbirliği S.K. - 5 Dec 2020
Süper LigGençlerbirliği S.K. 2–1 Alanyaspor - 16 Feb 2020
Süper LigAlanyaspor 0–1 Gençlerbirliği S.K.
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s attack rates 13% above Alanyaspor's, and the two defences are almost level. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Alanyaspor | 0.62 | 1.29 |
| Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 0.70 | 1.27 |
The result against the call
Gençlerbirliği S.K. beat Alanyaspor 5–0. The goals: O. Ulgun 1' for Gençlerbirliği S.K., F. Tongya 59' for Gençlerbirliği S.K., T. Gouveia 66' for Gençlerbirliği S.K., P. Mendes 68' for Gençlerbirliği S.K., T. Gouveia 78' for Gençlerbirliği S.K.. On expected goals it finished 1.91–0.50.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Gençlerbirliği S.K. a 32.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 24.2% after a win, 33.2% after a draw, 37.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 24.2%, 7.8 points lower than before the match.
For Alanyaspor the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 6.5% going in: 3.9% after a win, 6.2% after a draw, 8.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.4%, 1.9 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Süper Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.