13 August 2026, 18:30 UTC

Anderlecht vs PAOK UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Lotto Park, Anderlecht
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Anderlecht 3-2 PAOK.

Before kick-off the model made it 65% Anderlecht, 17% draw, 18% PAOK — fair odds of 1.54, 5.88 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Anderlecht at 65% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Anderlecht97%Draw3%PAOK0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽L. Petrot
19'
34'
⚽A. Zivkovicassist: Taison
43'
A. Baba
46'
🔁A. Babaout: D. Giannoulis
46'
🔁A. Mythouout: M. Camara
⚽L. Ambrosassist: G. Biancone
47'
⚽D. Sikanassist: M. Cvetkovic
55'
67'
🔁B. Santamariaout: G. Taylor
67'
🔁Taisonout: A. Jeremejeff
74'
•C. Coosemans
🔁K. Ngaout: L. Augustinsson
78'
🔁M. N'Diayeout: N. Saliba
78'
🔁D. Sikanout: T. Degreef
78'
L. Ambros
80'
82'
C. Zafeiris
🔁E. Llansanaout: J. Onia Seke
84'
84'
🔁C. Zafeirisout: T. Louchet
88'
⚽A. Jeremejeff (pen)
89'
A. Zivkovic
G. Biancone
89'
90+3'
A. Jeremejeff
N. Saliba
90+5'
🔁M. Cvetkovicout: A. Bertaccini
90+2'

Line-ups

Anderlecht
  • 26C. Coosemans
  • 79A. Maamar
  • 4G. Biancone
  • 27L. Petrot
  • 5M. N'Diaye
  • 24E. Llansana
  • 55M. Kana
  • 61K. Nga
  • 18L. Ambros
  • 9M. Cvetkovic
  • 14D. Sikan
Substitutes
  • 32J. Heekeren
  • 62B. Vroninks
  • 6L. Augustinsson
  • 50K. Barry
  • 2Z. Keita
  • 13N. Saliba
  • 53N. Cobiella
  • 68N. Kalonji Kafumpata
  • 91A. Bertaccini
Coach: Vitor Bruno
PAOK
  • 1J. Pavlenka
  • 3J. Kenny
  • 6A. Elustondo
  • 5G. Michailidis
  • 21A. Baba
  • 20C. Zafeiris
  • 7B. Santamaria
  • 14A. Zivkovic
  • 65G. Konstantelias
  • 11Taison
  • 56A. Mythou
Substitutes
  • 99A. Tsiftsis
  • 13D. Giannoulis
  • 25K. Thymianis
  • 18Jogo
  • 97D. Bataoulas
  • 32G. Taylor
  • 10D. Pelkas
  • 2M. Camara
  • 23T. Louchet
Coach: Alessio Lisci

Form going into Anderlecht vs PAOK

Anderlecht

  • W1-0away to PAOK6 August 2026

PAOK

  • L0-1Anderlecht6 August 2026
  • W2-0Dynamo Kyiv30 July 2026
  • W3-2away to Dynamo Kyiv23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Anderlecht and PAOK in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
29AnderlechtUEFA Europa League100112-10
2PAOKSuper League 1430194+59

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: UEFA Europa League · Super League 1

Head-to-head: Anderlecht vs PAOK

  • 13 August 2026Anderlecht 3–2 PAOKUEFA Europa League
  • 6 August 2026PAOK 0–1 AnderlechtUEFA Europa League

Leading scorers: Anderlecht and PAOK

Anderlecht

  • M. Cvetković1 goals

PAOK

  • D. Pelkas3 goals
  • A. Živković2 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.