13 August 2026, 17:30 UTC

Vikingur Reykjavik vs FC Thun UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Víkingsvollur Stadium, Reykjavik
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Vikingur Reykjavik 3-2 FC Thun.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Vikingur Reykjavik, 23% draw, 44% FC Thun — fair odds of 3.03, 4.35 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC Thun at 44% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Vikingur Reykjavik94%Draw6%FC Thun0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

G. Sigurdsson
5'
10'
⚽F. Fehrassist: N. Reichmuth
⚽G. Sigurdssonassist: V. Andrason
16'
35'
⚽B. Labeauassist: N. Reichmuth
⚽S. Thordarsonassist: K. Gunnarsson
38'
42'
M. Heule
O. Ekroth
47'
47'
M. Gutbub
⚽V. Ingimundarson
55'
V. Ingimundarson
58'
61'
J. Bamert
🔁K. Gunnarssonout: D. Atlason
63'
🔁A. Thrandarsonout: N. Hansen
63'
G. Vatnhamar
66'
S. Ottesen
71'
🔁A. Finnbogasonout: D. Jonsson
75'
79'
🔁N. Zoukitout: F. Saiz
79'
🔁N. Reichmuthout: N. Maier
83'
🔁M. Gutbubout: L. Stewart
84'
V. Matoshi
88'
🔁M. Heuleout: N. Burgy
🔁V. Ingimundarsonout: S. Thorkelsson
90+2'

Line-ups

Vikingur Reykjavik
  • 29A. Fridriksson
  • 22K. Gunnarsson
  • 4O. Ekroth
  • 6G. Vatnhamar
  • 9H. Gudjonsson
  • 69A. Finnbogason
  • 10G. Sigurdsson
  • 8V. Andrason
  • 21A. Thrandarson
  • 25V. Ingimundarson
  • 77S. Thordarson
Substitutes
  • 47O. Kristinsson
  • 99U. Audunsson
  • 2S. Thorkelsson
  • 24D. Atlason
  • 15R. Thorkelsson
  • 30S. Hauksson
  • 18D. Jonsson
  • 23N. Hansen
Coach: Solvi Ottesen
FC Thun
  • 1N. Steffen
  • 47F. Fehr
  • 19J. Bamert
  • 23M. Burki
  • 27M. Heule
  • 70N. Reichmuth
  • 16J. Roth
  • 13N. Zoukit
  • 78V. Matoshi
  • 33M. Gutbub
  • 96B. Labeau
Substitutes
  • 25T. Spycher
  • 34L. Stucki
  • 5N. Burgy
  • 17A. Balaruban
  • 37L. Dahler
  • 8F. Saiz
  • 21D. Derbaci
  • 80S. Lengen
  • 52A. Ilic
Coach: Luca Privitelli Gian

Form going into Vikingur Reykjavik vs FC Thun

Vikingur Reykjavik

  • L0-3away to FC Thun6 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Hapoel Beer Sheva29 July 2026
  • W2-1Hapoel Beer Sheva21 July 2026

FC Thun

  • L2-4away to FC Basel 18939 August 2026
  • W3-0Vikingur Reykjavik6 August 2026
  • L0-6BSC Young Boys1 August 2026
  • L2-3away to Dinamo Zagreb28 July 2026
  • W3-1away to FC Luzern25 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Vikingur Reykjavik vs FC Thun

  • 13 August 2026Vikingur Reykjavik 3–2 FC ThunUEFA Europa League
  • 6 August 2026FC Thun 3–0 Vikingur ReykjavikUEFA Europa League

Leading scorers: Vikingur Reykjavik and FC Thun

Vikingur Reykjavik

No leading scorers listed yet.

FC Thun

  • B. Labeau3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.