Angers vs Lille Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Angers 0-2 Lille.
Before kick-off the model made it 15% Angers, 23% draw, 62% Lille — fair odds of 6.67, 4.35 and 1.61. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lille at 62% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Angers vs Lille
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Anthony LopesG
- 27Lilian RaolisoaD
- 4Ousmane CamaraD
- 21Jordan LefortD
- 3Jacques EkomiéD
- 8Branco Van den BoomenM
- 14Yassin BelkhdimM
- 18Jim AllevinahM
- 26Anthony BermontM
- 10Amine SbaiM
- 19Amine El OuazzaniF
- 9Prosper PeterF
- 7Mamadou Usman SimbakoliF
- 11Harouna DjibirinF
- 2Carlens ArcusD
- 36Bané DiattaM
- 16Melvin ZingaG
- 24Emmanuel BiumlaM
- 17Joseph Kalulu KyatengwaD
- 34Maël GernigonD
- 1Berke ÖzerG
- 22Tiago SantosD
- 3Nathan NgoyD
- 4Alexsandro RibeiroD
- 15Romain PerraudD
- 17Ngal'ayel MukauM
- 6Nabil BentalebM
- 8Ethan MbappéM
- 10Hakon Arnar HaraldssonM
- 19Başar ÖnalM
- 9Olivier GiroudF
- 27Félix CorreiaF
- 11Osame SahraouiF
- 28Gaëtan PerrinF
- 24Calvin VerdonkD
- 26Isaac CossierD
- 16Arnaud BodartG
- 2Loun SrdanovicD
- 20Noah EdjoumaF
- 35Soriba DiaouneF
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Angers | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 |
| 1 | Lille | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Angers vs Lille
- 23 August 2026Angers 0–2 LilleLigue 1
- 22 February 2026Angers 0–1 LilleLigue 1
- 2 November 2025Lille 1–0 AngersLigue 1
- 27 April 2025Angers 0–2 LilleLigue 1
- 24 August 2024Lille 2–0 AngersLigue 1
- 8 April 2023Angers 1–0 LilleLigue 1
Leading scorers: Angers and Lille
Angers
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Lille
- Tiago Santos2 goals
- O. Giroud1 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.