23 August 2026, 18:45 UTC

Paris Saint Germain vs Rennes Ligue 1 prediction & result

Parc des Princes, Paris

Full time2 – 2

Final score: Paris Saint Germain 2-2 Rennes.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Paris Saint Germain, 21% draw, 48% Rennes — fair odds of 3.23, 4.76 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published 29 August 2026 · updated 17 September 2026

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Rennes at 48% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Paris Saint Germain5%Draw89%Rennes6%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽S. Szymanskiassist: A. Thomasson

38'

⚽E. Lepaulassist: P. Frankowski

42'

Adrien Thomasson

🔁O. Dembeleout: F. Torres

46'

🔁K. Kvaratskheliaout: M. Godts

46'

🔁J. Nevesout: F. Ruiz

60'

🔁W. Zaire-Emeryout: M. Akliouche

60'

63'

Mousa Tamari

🔁Vitinhaout: L. Beraldo

69'

⚽F. Torresassist: F. Ruiz

71'

72'

🔁M. Tamariout: L. Blas

Marquinhos

76'

78'

🔁M. Nagidaout: Q. Merlin

78'

🔁S. Szymanskiout: H. Do Marcolino

⚽F. Torresassist: F. Ruiz

82'

Achraf Hakimi

84'

88'

🔁P. Frankowskiout: B. Reynolds

88'

🔁I. Soumareout: A. Nordin

Match stats — Paris Saint Germain vs Rennes

69%Possession31%

19Shots9

5On target3

10Corners0

1.91xG1.07

Goals against chances

Paris Saint Germain2 from 1.91 xGabout what the chances were worth

Rennes2 from 1.07 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Paris Saint Germain 4-3-3

39M. SafonovG
2A. HakimiD
5MarquinhosD
51W. PachoD
21L. HernandezD
33W. Zaire-EmeryM
17VitinhaM
87J. NevesM
14D. DoueF
10O. DembeleF
7K. KvaratskheliaF

Substitutes

30L. ChevalierG
12L. DigneD
6I. ZabarnyiD
4L. BeraldoD
8F. RuizM
27D. FernandezM
9F. TorresF
11M. AklioucheM
22M. GodtsF

Coach: Enrique Luis

Rennes 4-1-4-1

30B. SambaG
95P. FrankowskiD
4C. CresswellD
48A. Ait BoudlalD
18M. NagidaD
21V. RongierM
11M. TamariM
17S. SzymanskiM
28A. ThomassonM
90I. SoumareM
9E. LepaulF

Substitutes

60K. BelazzougG
14B. ReynoldsD
26Q. MerlinD
24A. RouaultD
10L. BlasF
70A. NordinF
35E. LegendreF
12E. MayendaF
65H. Do MarcolinoF

Coach: Franck Haise

Ligue 1 table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
8	Paris Saint Germain	4	1	2	1	6	6	0	5
3	Rennes	4	3	1	0	8	5	+3	10

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Paris Saint Germain vs Rennes

23 August 2026Rennes 2–2 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
13 February 2026Rennes 3–1 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
6 December 2025Paris Saint Germain 5–0 RennesLigue 1
8 March 2025Rennes 1–4 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
27 September 2024Paris Saint Germain 3–1 RennesLigue 1
3 April 2024Paris Saint Germain 1–0 RennesCoupe de France

Leading scorers: Paris Saint Germain and Rennes