Le Havre vs Monaco Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Le Havre 0-1 Monaco.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Le Havre, 24% draw, 36% Monaco — fair odds of 2.50, 4.17 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Le Havre at 40% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Le Havre vs Monaco
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 77Lionel Mpasi NzauG
- 32Timothee PembeleD
- 15Ayumu SekoD
- 23Vincent SassoD
- 13Fodé DoucouréM
- 26Simon EbonogM
- 6Junior MwangaM
- 18Yanis ZouaouiM
- 14Rassoul NdiayeF
- 7Amir RichardsonF
- 25Ally SamattaF
- 27Enzo KoffiF
- 99Mory DiawG
- 33Djibril OuziadD
- 12Elias JelertD
- 17Kaito MizutaM
- 78Daren MosengoM
- 44Ismail BounebM
- 30Sota NakamuraF
- 9Josh MajaF
- 1Lukáš HrádeckýG
- 2VandersonD
- 72Sadibou SanéD
- 15Eric DierD
- 20NazinhoD
- 8Lamine CamaraM
- 6Denis ZakariaM
- 28Mamadou CoulibalyM
- 10Aleksandr GolovinM
- 17Stanis Idumbo MuzamboM
- 29Paris BrunnerF
- 16Philipp KöhnG
- 5Thilo KehrerD
- 49Ilane TouréM
- 19Pape CabralM
- 46Anis SoubeirM
- 7Mathys DetourbetF
- 14Mika BierethF
- 42Oumar KonatéF
- 47Safouane BenzahraM
Form going into Le Havre vs Monaco
Le Havre
No earlier matches on record this season.
Monaco
- W3-2away to Gornik Zabrze20 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Le Havre | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2 |
| 2 | Monaco | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Le Havre vs Monaco
- 23 August 2026Le Havre 0–1 MonacoLigue 1
- 24 January 2026Le Havre 0–0 MonacoLigue 1
- 16 August 2025Monaco 3–1 Le HavreLigue 1
- 26 April 2025Le Havre 1–1 MonacoLigue 1
- 22 September 2024Monaco 3–1 Le HavreLigue 1
- 4 February 2024Monaco 1–1 Le HavreLigue 1
Leading scorers: Le Havre and Monaco
Le Havre
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Monaco
- Paris Josua Brunner3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.