23 August 2026, 12:30 UTC

PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen Eredivisie prediction & result

Philips Stadion, Eindhoven
Full time5 – 1

Final score: PSV Eindhoven 5-1 Groningen.

Before kick-off the model made it 76% PSV Eindhoven, 15% draw, 9% Groningen — fair odds of 1.32, 6.67 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts PSV Eindhoven at 76% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
⚽B. Willumssonassist: T. van Bergen
⚽T. Blokzijl (OG)
11'
R. van Bommel
21'
⚽I. Perisic
35'
45+2'
M. Csinger
⚽R. Pepi (pen)
45+3'
46'
🔁J. Schreudersout: M. Rente
⚽I. Perisicassist: Mauro Junior
53'
54'
🔁M. Renteout: N. Brandis
⚽S. Destassist: R. van Bommel
56'
67'
🔁B. Willumssonout: E. van der Laan
67'
🔁D. van der Werffout: J. Ondrejka
🔁R. van Bommelout: A. Bouhamdi
68'
🔁N. Fernandezout: P. Wanner
68'
🔁Mauro Juniorout: F. Kostic
75'
🔁I. Perisicout: D. Man
76'
🔁A. Obispoout: L. Geertruida
85'
85'
🔁T. de Jongeout: T. Hernes

Match stats — PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen

62%Possession38%
24Shots7
12On target4
9Corners4
4.42xG1.09

Goals against chances

PSV Eindhoven5 from 4.42 xGmore than the chances were worth
Groningen1 from 1.09 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

PSV Eindhoven 4-3-3
  • 32Matěj KovářG
  • 8Sergiño DestD
  • 6Ryan FlamingoD
  • 4Armando ObispoD
  • 17Mauro JúniorD
  • 20Guus TilM
  • 24Kodai SanoM
  • 31Noah FernandezM
  • 5Ivan PerišićF
  • 9Ricardo PepiF
  • 7Ruben van BommelF
Substitutes
  • 10Paul WannerM
  • 37Amir BouhamdiF
  • 18Filip KostićM
  • 27Dennis ManF
  • 2Lutsharel GeertruidaD
  • 41Khadim NgomG
  • 1Nick OlijG
  • 3Yarek GasiorowskiD
  • 25Kiliann SildilliaD
Coach: Peter Bosz
Groningen 4-2-3-1
  • 1Etienne VaessenG
  • 14Jorg SchreudersD
  • 3Thijmen BlokzijlD
  • 4Márk CsingerD
  • 2Wouter PrinsD
  • 8Tika de JongeM
  • 18Tygo LandM
  • 17David van der WerffM
  • 26Thom van BergenM
  • 24Pelle ClementM
  • 9Brynjólfur Darri WillumssonF
Substitutes
  • 5Marco RenteD
  • 12Nikolas BrandisD
  • 15Elvis Van der LaanD
  • 11Jacob OndrejkaF
  • 7Travis HernesM
  • 13Lovro ŠtubljarG
  • 31Rijk JanseG
  • 42Jesper MosselaarD
  • 44Jismerai DillemaM
Coach: Dick Lukkien

Form going into PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen

PSV Eindhoven

  • W2-1away to Excelsior15 August 2026

Groningen

  • W4-1away to ADO Den Haag16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1PSV Eindhoven6510227+1516
9Groningen62221213-18

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen

  • 23 August 2026PSV Eindhoven 5–1 GroningenEredivisie
  • 8 February 2026Groningen 1–2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
  • 23 August 2025PSV Eindhoven 4–2 GroningenEredivisie
  • 5 April 2025Groningen 1–3 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
  • 23 November 2024PSV Eindhoven 5–0 GroningenEredivisie
  • 11 February 2023PSV Eindhoven 6–0 GroningenEredivisie

Leading scorers: PSV Eindhoven and Groningen

PSV Eindhoven

  • S. Mijnans4 goals1 assists

Groningen

  • B. Willumsson4 goals
  • T. van Bergen3 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.