18 October 2026, 14:45 UTC

Groningen vs Ajax Eredivisie prediction & result

Euroborg, Groningen
Referee: Dennis Higler
Full time2 – 5

Final score: Groningen 2-5 Ajax.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Groningen, 26% draw, 41% Ajax — fair odds of 3.03, 3.85 and 2.44.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Ajax at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Groningen0%Draw1%Ajax99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

10'
⚽Davy Klaassen (pen)
•Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson
16'
27'
⚽Julian Brandt
37'
⚽Aaron Bouwman
Thom Van Bergen
40'
45+2'
Dies Janse
⚽Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson
49'
56'
•Davy Klaassen
60'
⚽Julian Brandtassist: Owen Wijndal
🔁Jacob Ondrejkaout: Mark Csinger
67'
69'
⚽Jorthy Mokio
74'
🔁Julian Brandtout: Abdellah Ouazane
74'
🔁Marcos Leonardo Santos Almeidaout: Tolu Arokodare
75'
⚽Jorthy Mokioassist: Davy Klaassen
82'
🔁Oscar Gloukhout: Rayane Bounida
82'
🔁Davy Klaassenout: Yves Bissouma
🔁Tika de Jongeout: Nils Eggens
83'
🔁Brynjólfur Darri Willumssonout: Tygo Land
83'
🔁David van der Werffout: Ryan Metu
83'
🔁Marco Renteout: Wouter Prins
83'
⚽Thom Van Bergen
83'
90'
Lucas Oliveira·Rosa
⚽Thom Van Bergen (pen)
90+1'

Match stats — Groningen vs Ajax

57%Possession43%
16Shots15
5On target11
7Corners4
2.29xG3.04

Goals against chances

Groningen2 from 2.29 xGabout what the chances were worth
Ajax5 from 3.04 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Groningen 4-2-3-1
  • 1E. VaessenG
  • 14J. SchreudersD
  • 3T. BlokzijlD
  • 5M. RenteD
  • 33H. HateboerD
  • 8T. de JongeM
  • 24P. ClementM
  • 17D. van der WerffM
  • 26T. van BergenM
  • 11J. OndrejkaM
  • 9B. WillumssonF
Substitutes
  • 19O. ZawadaF
  • 30P. BoevinkG
  • 4M. CsingerD
  • 44Besnik MashukuM
  • 20Nils EggensF
  • 7T. HernesM
  • 18T. LandM
  • 34R. MetuF
  • 42J. MosselaarD
Coach: D. Lukkien
Ajax 4-3-3
  • 1M. ter StegenG
  • 2Lucas RosaD
  • 30A. BouwmanD
  • 36D. JanseD
  • 5O. WijndalD
  • 18D. KlaassenM
  • 4S. AmrabatM
  • 24J. MokioM
  • 8J. BrandtF
  • 38Marcos LeonardoF
  • 10O. GloukhF
Substitutes
  • 99T. ArokodareF
  • 15Y. BaasD
  • 28Y. BissoumaM
  • 43Rayane BounidaF
  • 6T. KehrerD
  • 68A. OuazaneM
  • 26M. PaesG
  • 51C. SetfordG
  • 21Jofre TorrentsD
Coach: Míchel

Form going into Groningen vs Ajax

Groningen

Eredivisie

  • W5-1away to Excelsior11 October 2026

Ajax

Eredivisie

  • D1-1NEC Nijmegen10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Groningen124352928+115
3Ajax127413215+1725

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Groningen vs Ajax

  • 21 May 2026Ajax 2–0 GroningenEredivisie
  • 7 March 2026Groningen 3–1 AjaxEredivisie
  • 2 December 2025Ajax 2–0 GroningenEredivisie
  • 14 May 2025Groningen 2–2 AjaxEredivisie
  • 6 October 2024Ajax 3–1 GroningenEredivisie
  • 16 May 2023Groningen 2–3 AjaxEredivisie

The full Groningen vs Ajax record →

Leading scorers: Groningen and Ajax

Groningen

GoalsAssists

  • B. Willumsson91
  • T. van Bergen83

Ajax

GoalsAssists

  • T. Arokodare71
  • J. Brandt62

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Ajax won 5–2 at Groningen. The model had made a win for Ajax its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Julian Brandt 27' for Ajax, Aaron Bouwman 37' for Ajax, Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson 49' for Groningen, Julian Brandt 60' for Ajax, Jorthy Mokio 69' for Ajax, Jorthy Mokio 75' for Ajax, Thom Van Bergen 83' for Groningen. On expected goals it finished 2.29–3.04.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Groningen a 16.0% chance to finish in the top four: 20.4% after a win, 14.5% after a draw, 12.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.8%, 3.2 points lower than before the match.

For Ajax the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 56.1% going in: 61.9% after a win, 55.7% after a draw, 48.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 61.9%, 5.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Eredivisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Groningen v Ajax has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 30% / 28% / 42% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 33% / 26% / 41%: the biggest move is Groningen's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Groningen win33%▲ +3
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Ajax win41%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.