18 October 2026, 15:15 UTC

Lorient vs Monaco Ligue 1 prediction & result

Stade du Moustoir, Lorient
Referee: Marc Bollengier
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Lorient 1-0 Monaco.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% Lorient, 27% draw, 43% Monaco — fair odds of 3.33, 3.70 and 2.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Monaco at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lorient95%Draw5%Monaco0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

52'
🔁Takumi Minaminoout: Edan Diop
57'
Mohammed Salisu
60'
Denis Zakaria
60'
Flavio Nazinho
⚽Noah Cadiou (pen)
61'
66'
🔁Ansu Fatiout: Folarin Balogun
66'
🔁Denis Zakariaout: Mathys Detourbet
66'
🔁Mohammed Salisuout: Christian Mawissa
Noah Cadiou
66'
🔁Ibrahima Baldeout: Mamadou Kone
71'
75'
🔁Matthis Ablineout: Mika Biereth
Arsène Kouassi
76'
🔁Gabin Bernardeauout: Souleymane Faye
79'
80'
Christian Mawissa

Match stats — Lorient vs Monaco

42%Possession58%
9Shots15
3On target4
3Corners4
1.66xG0.71

Goals against chances

Lorient1 from 1.66 xGless than the chances were worth
Monaco0 from 0.71 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Lorient 3-4-2-1
  • 38Y. MvogoG
  • 32N. AdjeiD
  • 3M. TalbiD
  • 95S. TouréD
  • 20D. SyllaM
  • 8N. CadiouM
  • 62A. AvomM
  • 43K. KouassiM
  • 17J. MakengoM
  • 33G. BernardeauM
  • 18I. BaldéF
Substitutes
  • 15A. TosinF
  • 2A. GeorgenD
  • 21B. KamaraG
  • 77P. KatserisD
  • 19S. FayeF
  • 42M. KoneF
  • 30S. KuzmićD
  • 11T. Le BrisM
  • 55N. ObaretinD
Coach: A. Dujeux
Monaco 4-2-3-1
  • 1L. HrádeckýG
  • 2VandersonD
  • 72Sadibou SanéD
  • 22M. SalisuD
  • 20Flávio NazinhoD
  • 8L. CamaraM
  • 6D. ZakariaM
  • 18T. MinaminoM
  • 31Ansu FatiM
  • 10A. GolovinM
  • 11M. AblineF
Substitutes
  • 4J. TezeD
  • 9F. BalogunF
  • 14M. BierethF
  • 19Pape CabralM
  • 28M. CoulibalyM
  • 7M. DetourbetF
  • 37E. DiopM
  • 16P. KöhnG
  • 13C. Mawissa ElebiD
Coach: Filipe Luís

Form going into Lorient vs Monaco

Lorient

Ligue 1

  • W1-0Paris FC10 October 2026

Monaco

Ligue 1

  • D2-2Toulouse10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Lorient1043398+115
7Monaco104421311+216

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lorient vs Monaco

  • 16 January 2026Monaco 1–3 LorientLigue 1
  • 27 September 2025Lorient 3–1 MonacoLigue 1
  • 17 March 2024Monaco 2–2 LorientLigue 1
  • 17 September 2023Lorient 2–2 MonacoLigue 1
  • 16 April 2023Monaco 3–1 LorientLigue 1
  • 11 January 2023Lorient 2–2 MonacoLigue 1

The full Lorient vs Monaco record →

Leading scorers: Lorient and Monaco

Lorient

No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Monaco

GoalsAssists

  • Paris Josua Brunner40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Lorient beat Monaco 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Monaco at 43% and given a win for Lorient 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Noah Cadiou (penalty) 61' for Lorient. On expected goals it finished 1.66–0.71.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Lorient a 5.0% chance to finish in the top four: 7.1% after a win, 4.1% after a draw, 3.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.1%, 2.1 points higher than before the match.

For Monaco the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 68.8% going in: 74.4% after a win, 66.7% after a draw, 64.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 64.1%, 4.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.