18 October 2026, 15:15 UTC

Paris FC vs Rennes Ligue 1 prediction & result

Stade Jean Bouin, Isilemulino
Referee: Bastein Dechepy
Full time4 – 3

Final score: Paris FC 4-3 Rennes.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% Paris FC, 24% draw, 24% Rennes — fair odds of 1.92, 4.17 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Paris FC at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Paris FC6%Draw91%Rennes3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Maxime Lópezassist: Lassine Sinayoko
14'
23'
Przemysław Frankowski
29'
⚽Esteban Lepaul (pen)
32'
Djaoui Cissé
36'
Adrien Thomasson
36'
Anthony Rouault
Samir Chergui
42'
⚽Maxime Lópezassist: Lassine Sinayoko
45+4'
45'
🔁Adrien Thomassonout: Valentin Rongier
45'
🔁Ludovic Blasout: Mousa Al-Tamari
45'
🔁Przemysław Frankowskiout: Mahamadou Nagida
51'
•Sebastian Szymański
62'
🔁Djaoui Cisséout: Mahdi Camara
Ilan Kebbal
67'
🔁Pablo Pagisout: Rudy Matondo
70'
74'
⚽Esteban Lepaul (pen)
⚽Lassine Sinayoko
76'
🔁Hamari Traoreout: Otavio
79'
79'
🔁Issa Soumaréout: Boulaye Dia
🔁Ilan Kebbalout: Moses Simon
79'
🔁Luca Koleoshoout: Moustapha Mbow
86'
🔁Samir Cherguiout: Emmanuel Mbemba
86'
88'
⚽Esteban Lepaul (pen)
•Lassine Sinayoko
90+3'
Hamari Traore
90+5'
⚽Lassine Sinayoko (pen)
90+7'

Match stats — Paris FC vs Rennes

53%Possession47%
19Shots12
9On target7
3Corners4
3.71xG3.08

Goals against chances

Paris FC4 from 3.71 xGabout what the chances were worth
Rennes3 from 3.08 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Paris FC 4-2-3-1
  • 1K. TrappG
  • 17A. CamaraD
  • 31S. CherguiD
  • 42D. CoppolaD
  • 14H. TraoréD
  • 20M. LopezM
  • 33P. Lees-MelouM
  • 10I. KebbalM
  • 7P. PagisM
  • 15L. KoleoshoM
  • 9L. SinayokoF
Substitutes
  • 11J. KrassoF
  • 23R. MatondoM
  • 3E. MbembaD
  • 5M. MbowD
  • 16O. NkambadioG
  • 6OtávioD
  • 27M. SimonF
  • 18O. SissokoF
  • 8E. ZabiM
Coach: L. Rosenior
Rennes 4-3-3
  • 30B. SambaG
  • 14B. ReynoldsD
  • 4C. CresswellD
  • 24A. RouaultD
  • 95P. FrankowskiD
  • 17S. SzymańskiM
  • 6D. CisséM
  • 28A. ThomassonM
  • 10L. BlasF
  • 9E. LepaulF
  • 90I. SoumaréF
Substitutes
  • 12Eliezer MayendaF
  • 18M. NagidaD
  • 70A. NordinF
  • 21V. RongierM
  • 11Mousa TamariF
  • 22B. DiaF
  • 45M. CamaraM
  • 60Kilian BelazzougG
  • 48A. Ait BoudlalD
Coach: F. Haise

Form going into Paris FC vs Rennes

Paris FC

Ligue 1

  • L0-1away to Lorient10 October 2026

Rennes

Ligue 1

  • W4-1Auxerre11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Paris FC106221710+720
8Rennes105142121016

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Paris FC vs Rennes

  • 10 May 2026Rennes 2–1 Paris FCLigue 1
  • 7 November 2025Paris FC 0–1 RennesLigue 1

Leading scorers: Paris FC and Rennes

Paris FC

GoalsAssists

  • L. Sinayoko95

Rennes

GoalsAssists

  • E. Lepaul70
  • B. Dia50
  • S. Szymański41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Paris FC beat Rennes 4–3. The model had made a win for Paris FC its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Maxime López 14' for Paris FC, Esteban Lepaul (penalty) 29' for Rennes, Maxime López 45+4' for Paris FC, Esteban Lepaul (penalty) 74' for Rennes, Lassine Sinayoko 76' for Paris FC, Esteban Lepaul (penalty) 88' for Rennes, Lassine Sinayoko (penalty) 90+7' for Paris FC. On expected goals it finished 3.71–3.08.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Paris FC a 51.8% chance to finish in the top four: 56.5% after a win, 48.0% after a draw, 43.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 56.5%, 4.7 points higher than before the match.

For Rennes the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 24.8% going in: 30.6% after a win, 25.9% after a draw, 21.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.6%, 3.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Paris FC v Rennes has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 50% / 26% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 52% / 24% / 24%: the biggest move is Paris FC's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Paris FC win52%▲ +2
  2. Draw24%▼ −2
  3. Rennes win24%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.