18 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Lyon vs Nice Ligue 1 prediction & result

Groupama Stadium, Lyon
Referee: Francois Letexier
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Lyon 2-1 Nice.

Before kick-off the model made it 57% Lyon, 25% draw, 18% Nice — fair odds of 1.75, 4.00 and 5.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lyon at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lyon97%Draw3%Nice0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

10'
Niels Nkounkou
18'
⚽Sepe Elye Wahiassist: Jonathan Clauss
⚽Pavel Šulc
32'
⚽Tanner Tessmannassist: Zachary Athekame
36'
48'
Mohamed Abdelmoneim
🔁Noah Teye Narteyout: Corentin Tolisso
61'
🔁Julien Duranvilleout: Keito Nakamura
61'
65'
Mohamed Amoura
Keito Nakamura
70'
🔁Kail Boudacheout: Felix Bacher
75'
81'
🔁Mohamed Abdelmoneimout: Alidu Seidu
🔁Pavel Šulcout: Khalis Merah
81'
🔁Abner Viniciusout: Ruben Kluivert
81'
87'
🔁Xavier Mandzaout: Sofiane Diop
87'
🔁Axel Witselout: Morgan Sanson
87'
🔁Gauthier Heinout: Isak Jansson
90+3'
•Sepe Elye Wahi
90+4'
Sepe Elye Wahi

Match stats — Lyon vs Nice

48%Possession52%
8Shots12
4On target5
1Corners9
1.59xG1.61

Goals against chances

Lyon2 from 1.59 xGabout what the chances were worth
Nice1 from 1.61 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Lyon 4-2-3-1
  • 40R. DescampsG
  • 13Z. AthekameD
  • 22Clinton MataD
  • 19M. NiakhatéD
  • 16AbnerD
  • 6T. TessmannM
  • 2M. BidstrupM
  • 26K. BoudacheM
  • 99N. NarteyM
  • 24J. DuranvilleM
  • 10P. ŠulcF
Substitutes
  • 1D. GreifG
  • 21R. KluivertD
  • 20F. BacherD
  • 45R. HimbertF
  • 18K. MerahM
  • 23T. MortonM
  • 11Keito NakamuraF
  • 7E. NuamahF
  • 8C. TolissoM
Coach: Paulo Fonseca
Nice 3-4-2-1
  • 23Y. DioufG
  • 5Mohamed AbdelmonemD
  • 55Y. NdayishimiyeD
  • 35X. Mandza TsiendiD
  • 92J. ClaussM
  • 28A. WitselM
  • 6H. BoudaouiM
  • 27N. NkounkouM
  • 7G. HeinM
  • 9M. AmouraM
  • 11E. WahiF
Substitutes
  • 84H. KoutouneD
  • 21I. JanssonF
  • 10S. DiopM
  • 39D. CoulibalyM
  • 77T. BoulhendiG
  • 41D. MoranaF
  • 29N. NgoumouF
  • 36A. SeiduD
  • 8M. SansonM
Coach: O. Pantaloni

Form going into Lyon vs Nice

Lyon

Ligue 1

  • L1-2away to Lens9 October 2026

Nice

Ligue 1

  • W2-1Strasbourg11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Lyon10523159+617
6Nice105231512+317

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lyon vs Nice

  • 15 February 2026Lyon 2–0 NiceLigue 1
  • 18 October 2025Nice 3–2 LyonLigue 1
  • 9 March 2025Nice 0–2 LyonLigue 1
  • 1 December 2024Lyon 4–1 NiceLigue 1
  • 16 February 2024Lyon 1–0 NiceLigue 1
  • 27 August 2023Nice 0–0 LyonLigue 1

The full Lyon vs Nice record →

Leading scorers: Lyon and Nice

Lyon

GoalsAssists

  • E. Nuamah41

Nice

GoalsAssists

  • E. Wahi62

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Lyon beat Nice 2–1. The model had made a win for Lyon its most likely outcome, at 57%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Sepe Elye Wahi 18' for Nice, Pavel Šulc 32' for Lyon, Tanner Tessmann 36' for Lyon. Sent off: Keito Nakamura (Lyon) 70'. On expected goals it finished 1.59–1.61.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Lyon a 38.6% chance to finish in the top four: 41.6% after a win, 35.5% after a draw, 31.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 41.6%, 3 points higher than before the match.

For Nice the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 25.5% going in: 17.4% after a win, 24.9% after a draw, 27.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 27.6%, 2.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Lyon v Nice has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 53% / 27% / 20% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 57% / 25% / 18%: the biggest move is Lyon's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Lyon win57%▲ +4
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. Nice win18%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.