18 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Twente vs Utrecht Eredivisie prediction & result

De Grolsch Veste, Enschede
Referee: Allard Lindhout
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Twente 1-2 Utrecht.

Before kick-off the model made it 60% Twente, 22% draw, 18% Utrecht — fair odds of 1.67, 4.55 and 5.56.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Twente at 60%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Twente0%Draw7%Utrecht93%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Daouda Weidmannassist: Aske Emil Berg Adelgaard
28'
🔁Daan Rotsout: Marko Pjaca
45'
47'
⚽Ángel Alarcónassist: Arthur Zagre
57'
Siebe Horemans
🔁Robin Propperout: Thomas Van den Belt
62'
🔁Kristian Nokkvi Hlynssonout: Younes Taha El Idrissi
62'
63'
⚽Ángel Alarcónassist: Arthur Zagre
67'
🔁Oualid Agougilout: Nordin Amrabat
67'
🔁Siebe Horemansout: Davy Van Den Berg
70'
Davy Van Den Berg
76'
🔁Yoann Cathlineout: Adrian Blake
76'
🔁Ángel Alarcónout: S. van Duijn
🔁Aske Emil Berg Adelgaardout: Lucas hesselink of vennegoor
76'

Match stats — Twente vs Utrecht

63%Possession37%
24Shots16
5On target5
5Corners4
1.36xG1.25

Goals against chances

Twente1 from 1.36 xGabout what the chances were worth
Utrecht2 from 1.25 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Twente 4-2-3-1
  • 16J. DrommelG
  • 28B. van RooijD
  • 3R. PröpperD
  • 4R. NijstadD
  • 29A. AdelgaardD
  • 6R. ZerroukiM
  • 8D. WeidmannM
  • 11D. RotsM
  • 14K. HlynssonM
  • 27S. ØrjasæterM
  • 9W. WeghorstF
Substitutes
  • 18Jordy BawuahM
  • 31Yannick GerritsenG
  • 24K. KurowskiD
  • 39J. MeilinkD
  • 22R. PasveerG
  • 7M. PjacaF
  • 2M. RosiakD
  • 10Y. TahaF
  • 17F. ThorvaldsenF
Coach: J. van den Brom
Utrecht 3-4-3
  • 22S. PadtG
  • 2S. HoremansD
  • 3M. DiddenD
  • 5N. PanagiotouD
  • 23N. VesterlundM
  • 8J. van OvereemM
  • 38O. AgougilM
  • 92A. ZagréM
  • 10Y. CathlineF
  • 20D. de WitF
  • 11Ángel AlarcónF
Substitutes
  • 17S. van DuijnF
  • 47E. C. OwenF
  • 31M. EppinkG
  • 33K. GadellaaG
  • 32P. KloosterboerD
  • 18J. MedićD
  • 6G. OfferhausD
  • 21N. Ogidi NwankwoD
  • 34D. van den BergM
Coach: A. Correia

Form going into Twente vs Utrecht

Twente

Eredivisie

  • D1-1away to Fortuna Sittard10 October 2026

Utrecht

Eredivisie

  • W3-1Willem II11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Twente127323012+1824
14Utrecht123362134-1312

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Twente vs Utrecht

  • 15 March 2026Twente 0–2 UtrechtEredivisie
  • 13 January 2026Utrecht 1–2 TwenteKNVB Beker
  • 7 December 2025Utrecht 1–1 TwenteEredivisie
  • 11 May 2025Twente 2–0 UtrechtEredivisie
  • 1 September 2024Utrecht 2–1 TwenteEredivisie
  • 18 February 2024Twente 0–1 UtrechtEredivisie

The full Twente vs Utrecht record →

Leading scorers: Twente and Utrecht

Twente

GoalsAssists

  • W. Weghorst92

Utrecht

No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Utrecht won 2–1 at Twente. The model had leaned towards a win for Twente at 60% and given a win for Utrecht 18%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goals: Daouda Weidmann 28' for Twente, Ángel Alarcón 47' for Utrecht, Ángel Alarcón 63' for Utrecht. On expected goals it finished 1.36–1.25.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Twente a 61.0% chance to finish in the top four: 64.7% after a win, 56.6% after a draw, 52.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 52.5%, 8.5 points lower than before the match.

For Utrecht the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 8.1% going in: 3.3% after a win, 7.1% after a draw, 8.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 3.3%, 4.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Eredivisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Twente v Utrecht has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 54% / 25% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 60% / 22% / 18%: the biggest move is Twente's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Twente win60%▲ +6
  2. Draw22%▼ −3
  3. Utrecht win18%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.