31 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Annecy vs Montpellier Ligue 2 prediction & result

Parc des Sports, Annecy
Referee: Antoine Valnet
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Annecy 0-3 Montpellier.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Annecy, 31% draw, 37% Montpellier — fair odds of 3.13, 3.23 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Montpellier at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Annecy0%Draw1%Montpellier99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Julien Kouadio
11'
24'
⚽Laciné Megnan-Pavéassist: Nicolas Pays
Laurent Guyot
35'
Laurent Guyot
35'
44'
⚽Nicolas Paysassist: Laciné Megnan-Pavé
45'
🔁Naoufel El Hannachout: Florian Tardieu
59'
Laciné Megnan-Pavé
🔁Alexis Casadeiout: Paul Venot
59'
🔁Julien Kouadioout: David Oduro
59'
63'
⚽Nicolas Paysassist: Florian Tardieu
67'
🔁Daryll Benlahlouout: Grégory Ayem
68'
🔁Laciné Megnan-Pavéout: Nordan Mukiele
🔁Moïse Sahiout: Souleymane Fofana
70'
🔁Thibault Rambaudout: Zepiqueno Redmond
70'
78'
🔁Mamadou Camaraout: Yassine Benhattab
🔁Mohamed Koneout: Pascal Mozie
80'
83'
Théo Chennahi
87'
🔁Daylam Meddahout: Everson Junior Pereira da Silva

Match stats — Annecy vs Montpellier

29%Possession71%
21Shots7
9On target5
5Corners2
2.91xG1.54

Goals against chances

Annecy0 from 2.91 xGless than the chances were worth
Montpellier3 from 1.54 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Annecy 4-2-3-1
  • 1F. EscalesG
  • 41T. DelphisD
  • 33Gabin SecrétantD
  • 26A. Do MarcolinoD
  • 27J. KouadioD
  • 14M. KonéM
  • 8A. CasadeiM
  • 28A. LaroseM
  • 80M. SahiM
  • 22C. BillemazM
  • 9T. RambaudF
Substitutes
  • 17Z. RedmondF
  • 19K. VeniereM
  • 16T. CallensG
  • 11Souleymane FofanaM
  • 21E. MarreD
  • 15P. MozieM
  • 32D. OduroD
  • 25P. VenotM
Coach: L. Guyot
Montpellier 4-2-3-1
  • 31S. NgapandouetnbuG
  • 3Naoufel El HannachD
  • 15J. LaporteD
  • 6Y. MouangaD
  • 28Y. ZouaouiD
  • 44T. ChennahiM
  • 27D. MeddahM
  • 18N. PaysM
  • 23Daryll BenlahlouM
  • 9Lacine Megnan-PaveM
  • 11M. CamaraF
Substitutes
  • 10Y. BenhattabM
  • 50V. DžodićG
  • 19N. MukieleF
  • 77EversonM
  • 5F. TardieuM
  • 90Gregory AyemM
  • 32Hichem AbderrebiM
  • 40N. Vidal-CartouxM
Coach: Z. Camara

Form going into Annecy vs Montpellier

Annecy

Ligue 2

  • W3-1away to Sochaux23 October 2026
  • L1-2Nancy16 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Dunkerque9 October 2026

Montpellier

Ligue 2

  • W2-1RED Star FC 9326 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Rodez19 October 2026
  • W2-0Grenoble9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Annecy125161418-416
3Montpellier12732189+924

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Annecy vs Montpellier

  • 10 April 2026Annecy 0–0 MontpellierLigue 2
  • 7 November 2025Montpellier 1–0 AnnecyLigue 2

Leading scorers: Annecy and Montpellier

Annecy

GoalsAssists

  • M. Sahi50

Montpellier

GoalsAssists

  • N. Pays52
  • Lacine Megnan-Pave42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Montpellier won 3–0 at Annecy. The model had made a win for Montpellier its most likely outcome, at 37%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Laciné Megnan-Pavé 24' for Montpellier, Nicolas Pays 44' for Montpellier, Nicolas Pays 63' for Montpellier. Sent off: Laurent Guyot (Annecy) 35'. On expected goals it finished 2.91–1.54.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Annecy a 7.8% chance to finish in the top two: 10.6% after a win, 7.3% after a draw, 4.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.9%, 2.9 points lower than before the match.

For Montpellier the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 53.2% going in: 60.7% after a win, 50.4% after a draw, 46.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 60.7%, 7.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 2 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Annecy v Montpellier has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 34% / 32% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 32% / 31% / 37%: the biggest move is Montpellier's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Annecy win32%▼ −2
  2. Draw31%▼ −1
  3. Montpellier win37%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.