31 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Guingamp vs Saint Etienne Ligue 2 prediction & result

Stade de Roudourou, Guingamp
Referee: Benoit Millot
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Guingamp 3-0 Saint Etienne.

Before kick-off the model made it 24% Guingamp, 27% draw, 49% Saint Etienne — fair odds of 4.17, 3.70 and 2.04.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Saint Etienne at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Guingamp99%Draw1%Saint Etienne0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

29'
João Ferreira
⚽Stanislas Kieltassist: Samir Ben Brahim
37'
45'
🔁Áron Csongvaiout: Mahmoud Jaber
45'
🔁Thierno Balloout: Irvin Cardona
45'
🔁João Ferreiraout: Ben Old
⚽Teddy Andami Averlantassist: Donacien Gomis
50'
64'
Zuriko Davitashvili
68'
🔁Maxime Bernauerout: Nadir El Jamali
68'
🔁Zuriko Davitashviliout: Joshua Duffus
🔁Stanislas Kieltout: Brandon Bokangu
68'
Jérémie Matumona Makanga
70'
🔁Samir Ben Brahimout: Florent Sanchez Da Silva
77'
🔁Tom Ducrocqout: Tanguy Ahile
77'
Tanguy Ahile
80'
🔁Teddy Andami Averlantout: Amadou Samoura
85'
🔁Tuomas Ollilaout: Jeovanni Dianganga
85'
⚽Amadou Samouraassist: Tanguy Ahile
85'
90+5'
Mahmoud Jaber

Match stats — Guingamp vs Saint Etienne

35%Possession65%
11Shots21
4On target3
5Corners11
1.59xG1.41

Goals against chances

Guingamp3 from 1.59 xGmore than the chances were worth
Saint Etienne0 from 1.41 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Guingamp 4-4-2
  • 16Adrián OrtoláG
  • 3J. MatumonaD
  • 7D. GomisD
  • 36A. DemouchyD
  • 5T. OllilaD
  • 11T. AverlantM
  • 4D. LouiserreM
  • 25T. DucrocqM
  • 20S. Ben BrahimM
  • 18S. KieltF
  • 10A. HemiaF
Substitutes
  • 23J. ChamakhF
  • 24J. DiangangaD
  • 35N. FondjaD
  • 17A. SamouraF
  • 8F. Da SilvaM
  • 31J. MatondoM
  • 22B. BokanguM
  • 1T. BartoucheG
  • 21T. AhileM
Coach: S. Ripoll
Saint Etienne 4-2-3-1
  • 1Mamour NdiayeG
  • 23K. PedroD
  • 26J. Le CardinalD
  • 18S. NairD
  • 13João FerreiraD
  • 6M. BernauerM
  • 14Á. CsongvaiM
  • 20A. BoakyeM
  • 10J. BreumM
  • 22Z. DavitashviliM
  • 8T. BalloF
Substitutes
  • 7I. CardonaF
  • 46E. DhaouiM
  • 31N. El JamaliM
  • 11B. OldF
  • 15Chico LambaD
  • 5M. JaberM
  • 40L. LavalléeG
  • 17J. DuffusF
  • 37N. Kasia NkondoD
Coach: Ian Cathro

Form going into Guingamp vs Saint Etienne

Guingamp

Ligue 2

  • W2-0away to Clermont Foot23 October 2026
  • L1-2PAU16 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Nancy9 October 2026

Saint Etienne

Ligue 2

  • W1-0Nantes24 October 2026
  • W1-0away to RED Star FC 9317 October 2026
  • W2-0Rodez10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Guingamp124261618-214
1Saint Etienne129122511+1428

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Guingamp vs Saint Etienne

  • 14 February 2026Guingamp 1–2 Saint EtienneLigue 2
  • 27 September 2025Saint Etienne 2–3 GuingampLigue 2
  • 4 May 2024Guingamp 2–2 Saint EtienneLigue 2
  • 5 December 2023Saint Etienne 1–3 GuingampLigue 2
  • 6 May 2023Saint Etienne 3–2 GuingampLigue 2
  • 17 September 2022Guingamp 2–1 Saint EtienneLigue 2

Leading scorers: Guingamp and Saint Etienne

Guingamp

GoalsAssists

  • B. Bokangu40

Saint Etienne

GoalsAssists

  • I. Cardona65
  • A. Boakye63
  • T. Ballo52

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Guingamp beat Saint Etienne 3–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Saint Etienne at 49% and given a win for Guingamp 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Stanislas Kielt 37' for Guingamp, Teddy Andami Averlant 50' for Guingamp, Amadou Samoura 85' for Guingamp. On expected goals it finished 1.59–1.41.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Guingamp a 17.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 11.2% after a win, 16.0% after a draw, 19.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.2%, 6.2 points lower than before the match.

For Saint Etienne the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 60.9% going in: 65.6% after a win, 58.1% after a draw, 54.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 54.2%, 6.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 2 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Guingamp v Saint Etienne has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 28% / 27% / 45% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 10 updates, it read 24% / 27% / 49%: the biggest move is Guingamp's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Guingamp win24%▼ −4
  2. Draw27%=
  3. Saint Etienne win49%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.