Rodez vs Dunkerque Ligue 2 prediction & result
Final score: Rodez 1-0 Dunkerque.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Rodez, 25% draw, 33% Dunkerque — fair odds of 2.38, 4.00 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Rodez at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Rodez vs Dunkerque
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Q. BraatG
- 28S. Luyambula BiwaD
- 24L. QuenabioD
- 4M. MagninD
- 3R. LipinskiD
- 20R. PontiD
- 29Antonin CartillierM
- 8D. PavlovićM
- 27M. Essimi AtebaM
- 9N. NsingiF
- 21K. NsonaF
- 11M. TouhoF
- 15E. Jean-LambertD
- 13C. RoubiouD
- 22O. JolyM
- 16L. MargueronG
- 6J. MendesM
- 7K. NageraF
- 10M. SakaM
- 5M. SyllaD
- 73Moha AiramG
- 27A. LinguetD
- 26Opa SangantéD
- 2O. TouréD
- 30AbnerD
- 15S. NzonziM
- 18Théna MassockM
- 7K. AyariM
- 10A. LebeauM
- 11E. PrutsevM
- 9G. RobailF
- 22V. MayelaD
- 42M. MakhloufiD
- 19S. KeitaM
- 21L. LoussilahoD
- 25Franck AtoenM
- 94E. MayillaF
- 23A. NadeF
- 16M. PrévotG
- 99M. NiangF
Form going into Rodez vs Dunkerque
Rodez
Ligue 2
- W2-1away to Dijon24 October 2026
- L0-3Montpellier19 October 2026
- L0-2away to Saint Etienne10 October 2026
Dunkerque
Ligue 2
- D1-1Metz23 October 2026
- W3-2away to Nantes17 October 2026
- L0-1Annecy9 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Rodez | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 13 |
| 10 | Dunkerque | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Rodez vs Dunkerque
- 3 April 2026Dunkerque 1–1 RodezLigue 2
- 21 November 2025Rodez 1–1 DunkerqueLigue 2
- 10 March 2025Rodez 5–1 DunkerqueLigue 2
- 30 August 2024Dunkerque 1–0 RodezLigue 2
- 10 February 2024Rodez 0–0 DunkerqueLigue 2
- 23 September 2023Dunkerque 1–2 RodezLigue 2
Leading scorers: Rodez and Dunkerque
Rodez
GoalsAssists
- I. Baldé50
Dunkerque
GoalsAssists
- E. Prutsev32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Rodez beat Dunkerque 1–0. The model had made a win for Rodez its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Kelian Nsona 40' for Rodez. On expected goals it finished 1.72–0.70.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rodez a 16.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 12.5% after a win, 17.5% after a draw, 21.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.5%, 4.2 points lower than before the match.
For Dunkerque the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 8.5% going in: 4.8% after a win, 8.2% after a draw, 10.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.6%, 2.1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Ligue 2 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Rodez v Dunkerque has moved
First published on 16 Oct at 45% / 25% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 42% / 25% / 33%: the biggest move is Rodez's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Rodez win42%▼ −3
- Draw25%=
- Dunkerque win33%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.