Nantes vs Clermont Foot Ligue 2 prediction & result
Final score: Nantes 1-1 Clermont Foot.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Nantes, 29% draw, 32% Clermont Foot — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Nantes at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Nantes vs Clermont Foot
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30P. CarlgrenG
- 18F. CentonzeD
- 24F. GuilbertD
- 4S. SowD
- 98K. AmianD
- 26R. HachemD
- 23W. YounoussaM
- 44B. PierretM
- 8J. LepenantM
- 37I. GanagoF
- 12K. CorredorF
- 1M. DupéG
- 13F. DoucouréD
- 20M. CafaroM
- 7A. JoujouF
- 19Louis LerouxM
- 74Loan MerrifieldF
- 5L. PerrinD
- 27T. RobinetF
- 28I. SissokoM
- 30T. GuivarchG
- 93I. CoulibalyD
- 28I. M'BahiaD
- 21Y. SalmierD
- 4E. KabeyaD
- 12V. N'SimbaD
- 26R. KouaméM
- 77E. CanteroM
- 10J. SambiaM
- 7F. BianchiniM
- 9Luís SemedoF
- 3A. PelmardD
- 44A. AckraM
- 22Marouane AdmarM
- 17O. DiopF
- 11M. DouaneF
- 5J. GrillotM
- 23A. HunouM
- 6E. KonéM
- 16M. NdiayeG
Form going into Nantes vs Clermont Foot
Nantes
Ligue 2
- L0-1away to Saint Etienne24 October 2026
- L2-3Dunkerque17 October 2026
- D0-0Reims10 October 2026
Clermont Foot
Ligue 2
- L0-2Guingamp23 October 2026
- D3-3away to Laval16 October 2026
- L2-3RED Star FC 9310 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Nantes | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 12 |
| 15 | Clermont Foot | 12 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Nantes vs Clermont Foot
- 14 January 2024Nantes 1–2 Clermont FootLigue 1
- 17 September 2023Clermont Foot 0–1 NantesLigue 1
- 29 January 2023Clermont Foot 0–0 NantesLigue 1
- 30 October 2022Nantes 1–1 Clermont FootLigue 1
- 3 April 2022Clermont Foot 2–3 NantesLigue 1
- 23 October 2021Nantes 2–1 Clermont FootLigue 1
Leading scorers: Nantes and Clermont Foot
Nantes
No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Clermont Foot
GoalsAssists
- F. Bianchini41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Nantes and Clermont Foot drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Nantes at 39% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Frédéric Guilbert 15' for Nantes, Florian Bianchini 71' for Clermont Foot. On expected goals it finished 0.77–0.33.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Nantes a 43.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 35.9% after a win, 44.9% after a draw, 51.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 44.9%, 1.2 points higher than before the match.
For Clermont Foot the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 40.7% going in: 32.6% after a win, 40.5% after a draw, 47.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 40.5%.
Read from our Ligue 2 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Nantes v Clermont Foot has moved
First published on 16 Oct at 52% / 28% / 20% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 39% / 29% / 32%: the biggest move is Nantes's chance of winning, down 13 points.
- Nantes win39%▼ −13
- Draw29%▲ +1
- Clermont Foot win32%▲ +12
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.