Estac Troyes vs Le Mans Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Estac Troyes 2-0 Le Mans.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Estac Troyes, 27% draw, 42% Le Mans — fair odds of 3.23, 3.70 and 2.38.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Le Mans at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Estac Troyes vs Le Mans
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 40H. KonatéG
- 2L. MaronnierD
- 6A. MonfrayD
- 4M. DiazD
- 5P. GozziD
- 17A. MilleM
- 29D. KarimM
- 8M. DiopM
- 10M. IfnaouiF
- 20R. RipartF
- 23T. NkadaF
- 7K. DiawaraF
- 14I. BouraD
- 33P. BeachG
- 11I. GomisM
- 9J. Le DouaronF
- 26A. PhliponeauM
- 22H. PicardM
- 36I. SoukounaM
- 44Y. TitiD
- 98N. KocikG
- 15N. BoisséD
- 17S. YohouD
- 16Raúl TorrenteD
- 8A. LaurayM
- 18L. BuadésM
- 9A. RabillardM
- 29L. BretelleM
- 22L. CalodatM
- 14L. MafoutaF
- 13H. DialloF
- 26R. BambaD
- 7B. BrahimiF
- 25D. GuèyeF
- 20W. HarhouzF
- 1E. HatfoutG
- 76Y. LarouciD
- 23D. TraoréM
- 10J. VercruysseM
- 5H. VoyerD
Form going into Estac Troyes vs Le Mans
Estac Troyes
Ligue 1
- D0-0away to Toulouse25 October 2026
- L1-3Lens17 October 2026
- L0-2Marseille11 October 2026
Le Mans
Ligue 1
- D1-1away to Auxerre25 October 2026
- L0-3Toulouse16 October 2026
- L1-3away to Paris Saint Germain10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 8 |
| 15 | Le Mans | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Estac Troyes vs Le Mans
Estac Troyes and Le Mans have met 6 times in the records we hold, Estac Troyes has won 3 of them to Le Mans's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
Estac Troyes won the last one 2–0 on 31 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estac Troyes | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 7 |
| Le Mans | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 16 goals, an average of 2.67 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 31 Oct 2026
Ligue 1Estac Troyes 2–0 Le Mans - 31 Jan 2026
Ligue 2Estac Troyes 0–2 Le Mans - 3 Oct 2025
Ligue 2Le Mans 2–2 Estac Troyes - 18 Oct 2019
Ligue 2Estac Troyes 2–1 Le Mans - 24 Feb 2012
Ligue 2Estac Troyes 2–1 Le Mans - 26 Sep 2011
Ligue 2Le Mans 1–1 Estac Troyes
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Le Mans' attack rates 30% above Estac Troyes', and Estac Troyes concede 13% fewer than Le Mans. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Estac Troyes | 0.61 | 1.10 |
| Le Mans | 0.79 | 1.26 |
Leading scorers: Estac Troyes and Le Mans
Estac Troyes
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Le Mans
GoalsAssists
- L. Mafouta41
- A. Bourabaa32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Estac Troyes beat Le Mans 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Le Mans at 42% and given a win for Estac Troyes 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Mouhamed Diop 33' for Estac Troyes, Ismaël Boura 71' for Estac Troyes. On expected goals it finished 2.06–0.22.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Estac Troyes a 68.9% chance to finish in the bottom two: 62.2% after a win, 69.5% after a draw, 74.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 62.2%, 6.7 points lower than before the match.
For Le Mans the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 18.0% going in: 12.4% after a win, 17.7% after a draw, 23.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 23.9%, 5.9 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Estac Troyes v Le Mans has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 33% / 26% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 31% / 27% / 42%: the biggest move is Estac Troyes's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Estac Troyes win31%▼ −2
- Draw27%▲ +1
- Le Mans win42%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.