25 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Antalyaspor vs Bodrum FK 1. Lig prediction & result

Corendon Airlines Park, Antalya
Referee: Ilker Yasin Avci
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Antalyaspor 1-2 Bodrum FK.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Antalyaspor, 29% draw, 36% Bodrum FK — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bodrum FK at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Antalyaspor0%Draw4%Bodrum FK96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

22'
🔁Boran Baskanout: Mustafa Erdilman
41'
⚽Ruben Providence
⚽Ahmet Sağat
54'
🔁Ahmet Sağatout: Nuno Da Costa
66'
🔁Omer Beyazout: Soner Dikmen
66'
66'
🔁Ruben Providenceout: Berkay Aslan
74'
⚽Berkay Aslanassist: Ege Bilsel
🔁Pedrinhoout: Ramzi Safuri
79'
🔁Mevlüt Şimşekout: Mert Yilmaz
79'
86'
🔁Ege Bilselout: Ali Aytemur
86'
🔁Tomas Cruzout: Emre Kaplan
🔁Samet Karakoçout: Erdoğan Yeşilyurt
87'
Bünyamin Balci
90+7'

Match stats — Antalyaspor vs Bodrum FK

80%Possession20%
21Shots6
5On target5
9Corners1
2.35xG0.89

Goals against chances

Antalyaspor1 from 2.35 xGless than the chances were worth
Bodrum FK2 from 0.89 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Antalyaspor 4-1-4-1
  • 77F. PseftisG
  • 7B. BalcıD
  • 4Bugra Tivsiz EnsarD
  • 15F. NzabaD
  • 19S. KarakoçD
  • 35J. CeesayM
  • 97M. ŞimşekM
  • 14PedrinhoM
  • 22S. van de StreekM
  • 5Ö. BeyazM
  • 23A. SağatF
Substitutes
  • 8R. SafouriM
  • 6S. DikmenM
  • 43A. KocamanD
  • 89V. SarıD
  • 18S. YalçınM
  • 17E. YeşilyurtM
  • 21A. YiğiterG
  • 9Nuno da CostaF
  • 20Hasan Yakub İlçinM
Coach: O. Özköylü
Bodrum FK 4-2-3-1
  • 1Diogo SousaG
  • 77B. YavuzayD
  • 5A. AjetiD
  • 4A. YılmazD
  • 23F. ApaydınD
  • 20Yusuf SertkayaM
  • 82B. BaşkanM
  • 11E. BilselM
  • 6J. de Sousa Moreira CruzM
  • 80R. ProvidenceM
  • 26V. AboubakarF
Substitutes
  • 17E. ArslanM
  • 19Berkay AslanF
  • 34A. AytemurD
  • 8M. ErdilmanM
  • 30Elvir GashijaniF
  • 75E. KaplanD
  • 9Kerem KayaarasiF
  • 14F. LoshajM
  • 68I. TarimD
Coach: Burhan Eşer

Form going into Antalyaspor vs Bodrum FK

Antalyaspor

1. Lig

  • W2-0away to İstanbulspor18 October 2026
  • L0-4Kayserispor14 October 2026

Bodrum FK

1. Lig

  • W2-1Bandırmaspor17 October 2026
  • W4-1away to Sarıyer13 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Antalyaspor146262021-120
7Bodrum FK145631813+521

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Antalyaspor vs Bodrum FK

  • 12 April 2025Bodrum FK 0–0 AntalyasporSüper Lig
  • 5 February 2025Bodrum FK 3–1 AntalyasporTürkiye Kupası
  • 9 November 2024Antalyaspor 3–2 Bodrum FKSüper Lig
  • 14 July 2022Antalyaspor 2–0 Bodrum FKFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Antalyaspor and Bodrum FK

Antalyaspor

GoalsAssists

  • S. van de Streek42

Bodrum FK

GoalsAssists

  • V. Aboubakar50
  • E. Bilsel41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Bodrum FK won 2–1 at Antalyaspor. The model had made a win for Bodrum FK its most likely outcome, at 36%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Ruben Providence 41' for Bodrum FK, Ahmet Sağat 54' for Antalyaspor, Berkay Aslan 74' for Bodrum FK. On expected goals it finished 2.35–0.89.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Antalyaspor a 7.6% chance to finish in the bottom four: 4.4% after a win, 7.4% after a draw, 10.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.1%, 2.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Antalyaspor v Bodrum FK has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 45% / 30% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 35% / 29% / 36%: the biggest move is Bodrum FK's chance of winning, up 11 points.

  1. Antalyaspor win35%▼ −10
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. Bodrum FK win36%▲ +11

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.