25 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Keçiörengücü vs Bursaspor 1. Lig prediction & result

Aktepe Stadium, Ankara
Referee: Emre Kargin
Full time2 – 4

Final score: Keçiörengücü 2-4 Bursaspor.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Keçiörengücü, 28% draw, 34% Bursaspor — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Keçiörengücü at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Emirhan Başyiğit (OG)
7'
15'
⚽Amine Boutrahassist: Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos
16'
•Amine Boutrah
20'
Emirhan Başyiğit
31'
M. Er
35'
⚽Lewis Bakerassist: Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos
İbrahim Akdağ
37'
🔁İbrahim Akdağout: I. Karaogul
38'
⚽Oğuzcan Çalışkanassist: E. Develi
43'
Mame Biram Diouf
45+3'
45'
🔁Emirhan Başyiğitout: Batuhan Yayikci
50'
⚽Kelechi Iheanachoassist: Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos
I. Karaogul
58'
🔁Odise Roshiout: Enes Yılmaz
61'
🔁Süleyman Lusout: Tuncer Duhan Aksu
61'
🔁Alcídio Raiceout: Jefferson
61'
62'
Lewis Baker
66'
⚽Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos
69'
🔁Kelechi Iheanachoout: Emir Kaan Gultekin
🔁Francis Ezehout: Moryke Fofana
69'
Enes Yılmaz
70'
71'
B. Gök
75'
🔁Lewis Bakerout: Soner Aydoğdu
75'
🔁Halil Akbunarout: Hüseyin Maldar
Berkan Mahmut Keskin
83'
83'
🔁B. Gökout: Tural Bayramov
84'
Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos
85'
Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos
Abdullah Celik
90+6'

Match stats — Keçiörengücü vs Bursaspor

43%Possession57%
14Shots22
2On target13
5Corners3
1.19xG1.84

Goals against chances

Keçiörengücü2 from 1.19 xGmore than the chances were worth
Bursaspor4 from 1.84 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Keçiörengücü 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. ErdoğanG
  • 12M. KeskinD
  • 5O. ÇalışkanD
  • 4A. ÇelikD
  • 33S. LuşD
  • 14İ. AkdağM
  • 6E. DeveliM
  • 7O. RoshiM
  • 20Alcídio RaiceM
  • 21F. EzehM
  • 55M. DioufF
Substitutes
  • 37D. AksuD
  • 22H. AyanM
  • 16Oğuzhan AyaydınM
  • 45Herculano NabianF
  • 9Ö. DemirelF
  • 77M. FofanaF
  • 8I. KaraogulM
  • 10JeffersonM
  • 18E. SatılmışG
Coach: O. Korkmaz
Bursaspor 4-2-3-1
  • 98K. MatisliG
  • 77R. BerişbekD
  • 4E. ErsoyD
  • 5Emirhan BaşyiğitD
  • 93B. GökD
  • 42L. BakerM
  • 6J. ElitimM
  • 7H. AkbunarM
  • 10LincolnM
  • 73A. BoutrahM
  • 14K. ỊheanachọF
Substitutes
  • 57B. YayıkcıD
  • 18Z. YavruD
  • 66H. MaldarD
  • 39A. KıvançG
  • 9E. GültekinF
  • 20B. BaşyiğitF
  • 27T. BayramovD
  • 24A. BabacanD
  • 8S. AydoğduM
Coach: M. Er

Form going into Keçiörengücü vs Bursaspor

Keçiörengücü

1. Lig

  • W2-1away to Fatih Karagümrük19 October 2026
  • D0-0Iğdır FK14 October 2026

Bursaspor

1. Lig

  • W2-0Pendikspor19 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Muğlaspor15 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Keçiörengücü146532618+823
1Bursaspor1410223012+1832

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Keçiörengücü vs Bursaspor

  • 2 April 2022Keçiörengücü 2–1 Bursaspor1. Lig
  • 1 November 2021Bursaspor 2–0 Keçiörengücü1. Lig
  • 9 May 2021Bursaspor 0–3 Keçiörengücü1. Lig
  • 2 January 2021Keçiörengücü 0–1 Bursaspor1. Lig
  • 20 June 2020Keçiörengücü 1–0 Bursaspor1. Lig
  • 23 November 2019Bursaspor 1–0 Keçiörengücü1. Lig

Leading scorers: Keçiörengücü and Bursaspor

Keçiörengücü

GoalsAssists

  • M. Diouf82

Bursaspor

GoalsAssists

  • K. Ịheanachọ173

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Bursaspor won 4–2 at Keçiörengücü. The model had leaned towards a win for Keçiörengücü at 38% and given a win for Bursaspor 34%. The goals: Emirhan Başyiğit (own goal) 7' for Keçiörengücü, Amine Boutrah 15' for Bursaspor, Lewis Baker 35' for Bursaspor, Oğuzcan Çalışkan 43' for Keçiörengücü, Kelechi Iheanacho 50' for Bursaspor, Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos 66' for Bursaspor. Sent off: Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos (Bursaspor) 85'. On expected goals it finished 1.19–1.84.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Keçiörengücü a 15.9% chance to finish in the top two: 20.2% after a win, 13.7% after a draw, 10.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.1%, 5.8 points lower than before the match.

For Bursaspor the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 70.6% going in: 78.4% after a win, 70.2% after a draw, 65.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 78.4%, 7.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Keçiörengücü v Bursaspor has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 41% / 27% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 38% / 28% / 34%: the biggest move is Keçiörengücü's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Keçiörengücü win38%▼ −3
  2. Draw28%▲ +1
  3. Bursaspor win34%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.