25 October 2026, 10:45 UTC

FC Rostov vs Lokomotiv Premier League prediction & result

Rostov Arena, Rostov
Referee: Vladimir Moskalev
Full time2 – 0

Final score: FC Rostov 2-0 Lokomotiv.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% FC Rostov, 29% draw, 40% Lokomotiv — fair odds of 3.23, 3.45 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lokomotiv at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Rostov99%Draw1%Lokomotiv0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Andrey Langovichassist: Konstantin Kuchaev
12'
⚽Olakunle Olusegunassist: Oumar Sako
24'
25'
🔁Zelimkhan Bakaevout: Aleksandr Kovalenko
45'
🔁Ilya Eremeevout: Mikhail Shchetinin
60'
🔁Aleksandr Rudenkoout: Vadim Rakov
🔁Ivan Komarovout: Ronaldo
61'
🔁Olakunle Olusegunout: Daniil Shantaliy
81'
🔁Konstantin Kuchaevout: Daniil Khlusevich
81'
🔁Timur Suleymanovout: Anton Shamonin
83'
Ronaldo
90+3'

Match stats — FC Rostov vs Lokomotiv

48%Possession52%
21Shots11
9On target0
8Corners5
1.62xG0.91

Goals against chances

FC Rostov2 from 1.62 xGabout what the chances were worth
Lokomotiv0 from 0.91 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Rostov 4-3-3
  • 84A. PetrovG
  • 4V. MelekhinD
  • 3O. SakoD
  • 40Ygor NogueiraD
  • 87A. LangovichD
  • 8A. MironovM
  • 27D. ProkhinM
  • 18K. KuchaevM
  • 10I. KomarovF
  • 99T. SuleymanovF
  • 6O. OlusegunF
Substitutes
  • 1R. YatimovG
  • 13D. TitovM
  • 21D. ShantaliyM
  • 91Anton ShamoninF
  • 22D. SemenchukD
  • 7RonaldoF
  • 5Y. MikhaylovM
  • 26D. KhlusevichD
  • 34D. GolikovG
Coach: D. Kirichenko
Lokomotiv 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. MitryushkinG
  • 24M. NenakhovD
  • 5G. NyamsiD
  • 85E. MorozovD
  • 45A. SiljanovD
  • 75I. EremeevM
  • 18N. TitkovM
  • 7Z. BakaevM
  • 19A. RudenkoM
  • 77A. MostovoyM
  • 27N. KomlichenkoF
Substitutes
  • 14G. DzhikiyaD
  • 16D. VeselovG
  • 47D. GodyaevM
  • 8A. KovalenkoM
  • 22I. LantratovG
  • 3Lucas FassonD
  • 23C. MontesD
  • 99R. MyalkovskiyF
  • 11V. RakovF
Coach: M. Galaktionov

Form going into FC Rostov vs Lokomotiv

FC Rostov

Premier League

  • D0-0away to Baltika18 October 2026
  • W1-0Akron9 October 2026

Lokomotiv

Premier League

  • D3-3FC Krasnodar17 October 2026
  • W5-0away to Fakel10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Russia Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6FC Rostov145451819-119
15Lokomotiv142571621-511

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Rostov vs Lokomotiv

  • 18 August 2026FC Rostov 1–0 LokomotivCup
  • 24 January 2026FC Rostov 1–1 LokomotivFriendlies Clubs
  • 30 November 2025FC Rostov 1–3 LokomotivPremier League
  • 23 August 2025Lokomotiv 3–3 FC RostovPremier League
  • 30 April 2025Lokomotiv 0–2 FC RostovCup
  • 26 April 2025FC Rostov 1–1 LokomotivPremier League

Leading scorers: FC Rostov and Lokomotiv

FC Rostov

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.

Lokomotiv

GoalsAssists

  • N. Titkov31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Rostov beat Lokomotiv 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Lokomotiv at 40% and given a win for FC Rostov 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Andrey Langovich 12' for FC Rostov, Olakunle Olusegun 24' for FC Rostov. On expected goals it finished 1.62–0.91.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Rostov a 32.8% chance to finish in the bottom four: 24.2% after a win, 32.9% after a draw, 39.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 24.2%, 8.6 points lower than before the match.

For Lokomotiv the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 10.9% going in: 6.2% after a win, 11.2% after a draw, 14.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 14.7%, 3.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.