6 November 2026, 17:00 UTC

Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor 1. Lig prediction & result

Corendon Airlines Park, Antalya
Referee: Oguzhan Gokcen
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Antalyaspor 1-1 Bursaspor.

Before kick-off the model made it 24% Antalyaspor, 25% draw, 51% Bursaspor — fair odds of 4.17, 4.00 and 1.96.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bursaspor at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

F. Nzaba
6'
21'
Rahmetullah Berisbek
26'
⚽Kelechi Iheanachoassist: Amine Boutrah
Güray Vural
33'
45+2'
Lewis Baker
⚽Tural Bayramov (OG)
45+6'
45'
🔁Juergen Elitimout: Eyüp Akcan
69'
🔁Emirhan Başyiğitout: Batuhan Yayikci
🔁Sander van de Streekout: Hasan Yakub İlçin
70'
Mevlüt Şimşek
74'
79'
🔁Tural Bayramovout: B. Gök
79'
🔁Halil Akbunarout: Hüseyin Maldar
🔁Soner Dikmenout: Ahmet Sağat
85'
88'
🔁Soner Aydoğduout: Zeki Yavru
🔁Mevlüt Şimşekout: Mert Yilmaz
90+4'
🔁Omer Beyazout: Samet Yalcin
90+4'

Match stats — Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor

46%Possession54%
12Shots13
4On target2
1Corners6
0.72xG1.46

Goals against chances

Antalyaspor1 from 0.72 xGabout what the chances were worth
Bursaspor1 from 1.46 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Antalyaspor 4-2-3-1
  • 77F. PseftisG
  • 19S. KarakoçD
  • 4Bugra Tivsiz EnsarD
  • 15F. NzabaD
  • 11G. VuralD
  • 6S. DikmenM
  • 14PedrinhoM
  • 97M. ŞimşekM
  • 5Ö. BeyazM
  • 22S. van de StreekM
  • 9Nuno da CostaF
Substitutes
  • 17E. YeşilyurtM
  • 81Arda AltunF
  • 44Ismail ChehaimaM
  • 43A. KocamanD
  • 89V. SarıD
  • 23A. SağatF
  • 18S. YalçınM
  • 21A. YiğiterG
  • 27M. YılmazD
Coach: O. Özköylü
Bursaspor 4-4-2
  • 98K. MatisliG
  • 77R. BerişbekD
  • 4E. ErsoyD
  • 5Emirhan BaşyiğitD
  • 27T. BayramovD
  • 7H. AkbunarM
  • 8S. AydoğduM
  • 6J. ElitimM
  • 73A. BoutrahM
  • 42L. BakerF
  • 14K. ỊheanachọF
Substitutes
  • 34E. AkcanM
  • 52T. AydoğanM
  • 24A. BabacanD
  • 20B. BaşyiğitF
  • 93B. GökD
  • 9E. GültekinF
  • 39A. KıvançG
  • 66H. MaldarD
  • 18Z. YavruD
Coach: M. Er

Form going into Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor

Antalyaspor

1. Lig

  • D1-1away to Iğdır FK1 November 2026
  • L1-2Bodrum FK25 October 2026
  • W2-0away to İstanbulspor18 October 2026
  • L0-4Kayserispor14 October 2026

Bursaspor

1. Lig

  • W3-0Bandırmaspor31 October 2026
  • W4-2away to Keçiörengücü25 October 2026
  • W2-0Pendikspor19 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Muğlaspor15 October 2026

What these results say

  • Antalyaspor failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Antalyaspor scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Antalyaspor conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Bursaspor won every one of these 4 matches.
  • Bursaspor scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Bursaspor kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Antalyaspor146262021-120
1Bursaspor1410223012+1832

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor

  • 29 October 2025Antalyaspor 3–0 BursasporTürkiye Kupası
  • 12 January 2021Bursaspor 0–3 AntalyasporTürkiye Kupası
  • 10 May 2019Antalyaspor 0–1 BursasporSüper Lig
  • 9 December 2018Bursaspor 0–2 AntalyasporSüper Lig
  • 31 March 2018Antalyaspor 2–0 BursasporSüper Lig
  • 29 October 2017Bursaspor 4–0 AntalyasporSüper Lig

Leading scorers: Antalyaspor and Bursaspor

Antalyaspor

GoalsAssists

  • S. van de Streek42

Bursaspor

GoalsAssists

  • K. Ịheanachọ173

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Antalyaspor and Bursaspor drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Bursaspor at 51% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Kelechi Iheanacho 26' for Bursaspor, Tural Bayramov (own goal) 45+6' for Antalyaspor. On expected goals it finished 0.72–1.46.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Antalyaspor a 8.8% chance to finish in the bottom four: 5.9% after a win, 8.5% after a draw, 9.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 8.5%.

For Bursaspor the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 53.6% going in: 58.7% after a win, 48.8% after a draw, 44.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 48.8%, 4.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Antalyaspor v Bursaspor has moved

First published on 23 Oct at 27% / 27% / 46% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 24% / 25% / 51%: the biggest move is Bursaspor's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Antalyaspor win24%▼ −3
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. Bursaspor win51%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.