Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Gaziantep FK 0-2 Kasımpaşa.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Gaziantep FK, 28% draw, 42% Kasımpaşa — fair odds of 3.33, 3.57 and 2.38.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Kasımpaşa at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 35Ataberk DadakdenizG
- 2Luis PérezD
- 14Myenty AbenaD
- 21Abakar SyllaD
- 23Kerim ÇalhanoğluD
- 7Juninho BacunaM
- 18Deian SorescuM
- 3Drissa CamaraM
- 44Alexandru MaximM
- 10Kacper KozłowskiM
- 9Trivante StewartF
- 61Ogün ÖzçiçekM
- 8Gidado Victor Ntino-EmoM
- 19Serdar DursunF
- 77Sabahattin DesticiD
- 28Halil DervişoğluF
- 81Cemilhan AslanG
- 4Arda KızıldağD
- 5Efe SarıkayaD
- 6Ulrich MelekeM
- 1Andreas GianniotisG
- 2Cláudio WinckD
- 4Adem ArousD
- 27Matei IlieD
- 45Ayberk KarapoD
- 51Elson MendesM
- 26Kerem DemirbayM
- 17Jesurun Rak-SakyiM
- 10Haris HajradinovićM
- 7Ali Yavuz KolM
- 9Adrian BenedyczakF
- 19Marcus RaffertyM
- 11Thiemoko DiarraF
- 66Emirhan BozM
- 5Jakob JessenD
- 50Güven YalçınF
- 25Ali Emre YanarG
- 18Ömer BayramD
- 30Ahmet Taha DağbaşıD
- 8Atakan MujdeM
Form going into Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa
Gaziantep FK
Süper Lig
- L0-2away to Trabzonspor1 November 2026
- L1-3Erzurumspor FK24 October 2026
- L1-2away to Başakşehir18 October 2026
- L0-3Çorum FK11 October 2026
Kasımpaşa
Süper Lig
- D2-2Beşiktaş1 November 2026
- W1-0away to Eyüpspor24 October 2026
- W4-1Samsunspor18 October 2026
- L1-3away to Galatasaray9 October 2026
What these results say
- Gaziantep FK did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Gaziantep FK conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Gaziantep FK had three goals or more.
- Kasımpaşa scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Kasımpaşa conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Kasımpaşa had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Gaziantep FK | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 8 |
| 5 | Kasımpaşa | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa
- 9 February 2026Gaziantep FK 2–1 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
- 30 August 2025Kasımpaşa 2–3 Gaziantep FKSüper Lig
- 24 May 2025Gaziantep FK 2–2 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
- 5 January 2025Kasımpaşa 2–2 Gaziantep FKSüper Lig
- 21 April 2024Gaziantep FK 2–0 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
- 3 December 2023Kasımpaşa 4–2 Gaziantep FKSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Gaziantep FK and Kasımpaşa
Gaziantep FK
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Kasımpaşa
GoalsAssists
- A. Benedyczak72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Kasımpaşa won 2–0 at Gaziantep FK. The model had made a win for Kasımpaşa its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: H. Hajradinovic 3' for Kasımpaşa, A. Benedyczak (penalty) 21' for Kasımpaşa. On expected goals it finished 0.88–1.96.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Gaziantep FK a 53.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 44.9% after a win, 53.8% after a draw, 59.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 59.2%, 5.5 points higher than before the match.
For Kasımpaşa the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 7.1% going in: 9.2% after a win, 5.2% after a draw, 4.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.2%, 2.1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Süper Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Gaziantep FK v Kasımpaşa has moved
First published on 23 Oct at 34% / 28% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 30% / 28% / 42%: the biggest move is Gaziantep FK's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Gaziantep FK win30%▼ −4
- Draw28%=
- Kasımpaşa win42%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.