6 November 2026, 17:00 UTC

Sarıyer vs Iğdır FK 1. Lig prediction & result

Yusuf Ziya Onis, Istanbul
Referee: Hakan Ulker
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Sarıyer 1-1 Iğdır FK.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Sarıyer, 32% draw, 35% Iğdır FK — fair odds of 3.03, 3.13 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Iğdır FK at 35%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sarıyer3%Draw94%Iğdır FK3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Marcos Silvaout: Tunahan Ergul
27'
🔁Yagiz Senout: Barış Alıcı
45'
61'
🔁Moustapha Camaraout: Felix Ohene Afena-Gyan
🔁Emeka Ezeout: Batuhan Kor
65'
⚽Eşref Korkmazoğlu
66'
69'
Giovanni Crociata
72'
⚽Serdar Gürler
72'
•Serdar Gürler
Eşref Korkmazoğlu
78'
🔁Efecan Karacaout: Joseph Attamah
83'
🔁Furkan Gedikout: Mamadou Thiam
83'
Cebrail Karayel
86'
86'
•Felix Ohene Afena-Gyan
88'
Felix Ohene Afena-Gyan
88'
🔁Giovanni Crociataout: Dino Hotić
89'
🔁Gökcan Kayaout: Efe-Kaan Sihlaroglu
90+4'
🔁Serdar Gürlerout: Leandro Bacuna
90+4'
🔁Arda Çolakout: Ozder Ozcan

Match stats — Sarıyer vs Iğdır FK

43%Possession57%
11Shots14
8On target4
6Corners3
1.23xG1.69

Goals against chances

Sarıyer1 from 1.23 xGabout what the chances were worth
Iğdır FK1 from 1.69 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sarıyer 4-2-3-1
  • 13I. ŠehićG
  • 77C. KarayelD
  • 24K. ArslanD
  • 88C. OsmanpaşaD
  • 5E. KorkmazoğluD
  • 28H. YeşilyurtM
  • 8Marcos SilvaM
  • 19Yagiz SenM
  • 41F. GedikM
  • 10E. KaracaM
  • 90E. EzeF
Substitutes
  • 1F. AkyüzG
  • 7B. AliciM
  • 3J. AttamahD
  • 17D. DavasM
  • 4E. DikmenD
  • 14T. ErgülM
  • 23Ü. ErgünD
  • 11E. KaradağM
  • 9B. KörF
Coach: Umut Eskiköy
Iğdır FK 4-1-4-1
  • 29J. SzumskiG
  • 61S. AsanD
  • 5A. ÖztürkD
  • 18L. KouagbaD
  • 28S. GönülD
  • 21D. ErdoğanM
  • 7M. CamaraM
  • 58G. KayaM
  • 24G. CrociataM
  • 17S. GürlerM
  • 9A. ÇolakF
Substitutes
  • 33F. Afena-GyanF
  • 6D. ŞenyurtM
  • 4A. ÖztürkD
  • 19Ö. ÖzcanF
  • 44L. CaliskanM
  • 1T. TepeG
  • 8E. SihlaroğluM
  • 2B. MoğultayD
  • 23D. HotićM
Coach: K. Kocak

Form going into Sarıyer vs Iğdır FK

Sarıyer

1. Lig

  • L0-1away to Vanspor FK31 October 2026
  • L0-2Fatih Karagümrük24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Sivasspor17 October 2026
  • L1-4Bodrum FK13 October 2026

Iğdır FK

1. Lig

  • D1-1Antalyaspor1 November 2026
  • W2-1away to Bandırmaspor24 October 2026
  • W1-0Boluspor18 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Keçiörengücü14 October 2026

What these results say

  • Sarıyer did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Sarıyer conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Sarıyer had two goals or fewer.
  • Iğdır FK went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Iğdır FK scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Iğdır FK had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Sarıyer144551519-417
3Iğdır FK148421911+828

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sarıyer vs Iğdır FK

  • 11 January 2026Sarıyer 1–0 Iğdır FK1. Lig
  • 9 August 2025Iğdır FK 2–1 Sarıyer1. Lig
  • 10 March 2024Sarıyer 0–0 Iğdır FK2. Lig
  • 28 October 2023Iğdır FK 2–1 Sarıyer2. Lig

The result against the call

Sarıyer and Iğdır FK drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Iğdır FK at 35% and given a draw 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Eşref Korkmazoğlu 66' for Sarıyer, Serdar Gürler 72' for Iğdır FK. On expected goals it finished 1.23–1.69.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sarıyer a 25.6% chance to finish in the bottom four: 18.0% after a win, 26.7% after a draw, 30.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 26.7%, 1.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Sarıyer v Iğdır FK has moved

First published on 23 Oct at 36% / 31% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 33% / 32% / 35%: the biggest move is Sarıyer's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Sarıyer win33%▼ −3
  2. Draw32%▲ +1
  3. Iğdır FK win35%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.