7 November 2026, 10:30 UTC

Keçiörengücü vs Manisa F.K. 1. Lig prediction & result

Aktepe Stadium, Ankara
Referee: Yusuf Ziya Gunduz
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Keçiörengücü 1-0 Manisa F.K..

Before kick-off the model made it 57% Keçiörengücü, 22% draw, 21% Manisa F.K. — fair odds of 1.75, 4.55 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Keçiörengücü at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Keçiörengücü97%Draw3%Manisa F.K.0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Omer Faruk Demirelassist: E. Develi
38'
48'
Osman Kaynak
49'
🔁Osman Kaynakout: Osman Kahraman
54'
Cheikne Sylla
55'
•Cheikne Sylla
57'
Julien Anziani
Odise Roshi
62'
76'
🔁Jonathan Lindsethout: Alenis Vargas
🔁Omer Faruk Demirelout: Alcídio Raice
76'
🔁Moryke Fofanaout: Enes Yılmaz
76'
Wellington Ferreira Nascimento
87'
🔁Odise Roshiout: Herculano·Nabian
87'
🔁E. Develiout: Oguzhan Ayaydin
88'
Mehmet Erdogan
90'
Oguzhan Ayaydin
90+3'
🔁İbrahim Akdağout: Halil Can Ayan
90+4'
90+6'
Birama Toure

Match stats — Keçiörengücü vs Manisa F.K.

45%Possession55%
9Shots9
4On target1
4Corners2
0.56xG1.11

Goals against chances

Keçiörengücü1 from 0.56 xGabout what the chances were worth
Manisa F.K.0 from 1.11 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Keçiörengücü 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. ErdoğanG
  • 12M. KeskinD
  • 3Wellington NascimentoD
  • 4A. ÇelikD
  • 37D. AksuD
  • 8I. KaraogulM
  • 14İ. AkdağM
  • 7O. RoshiM
  • 6E. DeveliM
  • 77M. FofanaM
  • 9Ö. DemirelF
Substitutes
  • 22H. AyanM
  • 16Oğuzhan AyaydınM
  • 2Y. BahadırD
  • 45Herculano NabianF
  • 33S. LuşD
  • 10JeffersonM
  • 20Alcídio RaiceM
  • 18E. SatılmışG
  • 19Enes YilmazM
Coach: O. Korkmaz
Manisa F.K. 4-1-4-1
  • 1V. KarakuşG
  • 6A. ÇankayaD
  • 5C. HérelleD
  • 27Y. GürelerD
  • 3O. KaynakD
  • 60B. TouréM
  • 7Y. TalumM
  • 20Y. BenrahouM
  • 10J. LindsethM
  • 23J. AnzianiM
  • 9C. SyllaF
Substitutes
  • 22K. YurdakulM
  • 13Egemen YayliG
  • 70A. VargasF
  • 96B. TibukogluD
  • 11N. LeminaM
  • 17Osman KahramanF
  • 4F. İnalD
  • 45Ada IbikD
  • 24Y. DursunM
Coach: Nestor El Maestro

Form going into Keçiörengücü vs Manisa F.K.

Keçiörengücü

1. Lig

  • L2-3away to Esenler Erokspor30 October 2026
  • L2-4Bursaspor25 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Fatih Karagümrük19 October 2026
  • D0-0Iğdır FK14 October 2026

Manisa F.K.

1. Lig

  • W2-1Batman Petrolspor31 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Mardin 196926 October 2026
  • L3-4Muğlaspor19 October 2026
  • D1-1Esenler Erokspor15 October 2026

What these results say

  • Keçiörengücü failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Keçiörengücü scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Keçiörengücü conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Manisa F.K. scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Manisa F.K. conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Manisa F.K..

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Keçiörengücü146532618+823
17Manisa F.K.143472124-313

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Keçiörengücü vs Manisa F.K.

  • 26 April 2026Keçiörengücü 2–1 Manisa F.K.1. Lig
  • 20 December 2025Manisa F.K. 2–2 Keçiörengücü1. Lig
  • 5 April 2025Manisa F.K. 1–2 Keçiörengücü1. Lig
  • 23 November 2024Keçiörengücü 4–0 Manisa F.K.1. Lig
  • 21 January 2024Keçiörengücü 1–1 Manisa F.K.1. Lig
  • 20 August 2023Manisa F.K. 0–0 Keçiörengücü1. Lig

Leading scorers: Keçiörengücü and Manisa F.K.

Keçiörengücü

GoalsAssists

  • M. Diouf82

Manisa F.K.

GoalsAssists

  • J. Anziani81
  • C. Sylla72

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Keçiörengücü beat Manisa F.K. 1–0. The model had made a win for Keçiörengücü its most likely outcome, at 57%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Omer Faruk Demirel 38' for Keçiörengücü. On expected goals it finished 0.56–1.11.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Manisa F.K. a 22.3% chance to finish in the bottom four: 15.2% after a win, 19.6% after a draw, 24.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 24.7%, 2.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Keçiörengücü v Manisa F.K. has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 60% / 22% / 18% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 57% / 22% / 21%: the biggest move is Keçiörengücü's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Keçiörengücü win57%▼ −3
  2. Draw22%=
  3. Manisa F.K. win21%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.