Pendikspor vs İstanbulspor 1. Lig prediction & result
Final score: Pendikspor 0-2 İstanbulspor.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Pendikspor, 25% draw, 21% İstanbulspor — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Pendikspor at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Pendikspor vs İstanbulspor
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 78E. DadükG
- 23E. GökçeD
- 2T. İnceD
- 6V. SoldoD
- 17S. AbifadeD
- 60B. KaradenizM
- 88D. HreljaM
- 20Y. SönmezM
- 14H. YeşilM
- 34ThuramM
- 9J. Clarke-HarrisF
- 7E. BaşsanM
- 66F. DoğanD
- 22K. KalafatD
- 99M. KipritF
- 30E. KoyuncuG
- 28E. PekdemirM
- 5B. SülüngözD
- 77A. UğurM
- 61O. ÃakıroÄluF
- 28A. TutarG
- 5M. OlogoD
- 4D. SahinD
- 37Umut İslamoğluD
- 89E. UzunhanD
- 21D. AydınM
- 12K. SönmezM
- 10I. IlievM
- 52Ã. DuymazM
- 27M. FallM
- 81A. AkmanF
- 3Y. ÖzerD
- 25Batuhan YavuzD
- 18Turan TuncerD
- 9M. SolF
- 44E. SeçginM
- 61E. SarıalioğluM
- 34A. KaraM
- 1I. DoganG
- 6I. DayakliM
Form going into Pendikspor vs İstanbulspor
Pendikspor
1. Lig
- W1-0away to Fatih Karagümrük31 October 2026
- D2-2Kayserispor25 October 2026
- L0-2away to Bursaspor19 October 2026
- L1-2Vanspor FK13 October 2026
İstanbulspor
1. Lig
- L1-2Mardin 19691 November 2026
- L0-5away to Muğlaspor24 October 2026
- L0-2Antalyaspor18 October 2026
- L2-4away to Batman Petrolspor14 October 2026
What these results say
- Pendikspor failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Pendikspor scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Pendikspor conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- İstanbulspor did not win any of these 4 matches.
- İstanbulspor conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for İstanbulspor had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pendikspor | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 14 |
| 19 | İstanbulspor | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 33 | -21 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Pendikspor vs İstanbulspor
- 14 March 2026Pendikspor 1–1 İstanbulspor1. Lig
- 2 November 2025İstanbulspor 0–0 Pendikspor1. Lig
- 27 April 2025İstanbulspor 5–2 Pendikspor1. Lig
- 21 December 2024Pendikspor 1–1 İstanbulspor1. Lig
- 15 March 2024Pendikspor 1–0 İstanbulsporSüper Lig
- 4 November 2023İstanbulspor 2–4 PendiksporSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Pendikspor and İstanbulspor
Pendikspor
No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
İstanbulspor
GoalsAssists
- Alieu Cham41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
İstanbulspor won 2–0 at Pendikspor. The model had leaned towards a win for Pendikspor at 54% and given a win for İstanbulspor 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Alieu Cham 69' for İstanbulspor, Aytaç Kara 90' for İstanbulspor. On expected goals it finished 1.39–1.25.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Pendikspor a 20.9% chance to finish in the bottom four: 16.5% after a win, 24.8% after a draw, 28.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 28.7%, 7.8 points higher than before the match.
For İstanbulspor the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 90.2% going in: 85.5% after a win, 88.6% after a draw, 92.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 85.5%, 4.7 points lower than before the match.
Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Pendikspor v İstanbulspor has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 49% / 26% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 54% / 25% / 21%: the biggest move is Pendikspor's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Pendikspor win54%▲ +5
- Draw25%▼ −1
- İstanbulspor win21%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.