7 November 2026, 13:00 UTC

Muğlaspor vs Esenler Erokspor 1. Lig prediction & result

Mugla Ataturk Stadyumu, Mugla/Marmaris
Referee: Mustafa Hakan Belder
Full time0 – 5

Final score: Muğlaspor 0-5 Esenler Erokspor.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Muğlaspor, 27% draw, 35% Esenler Erokspor — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Muğlaspor at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Muğlaspor0%Draw1%Esenler Erokspor99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

24'
•Bahadir Öztürk
Yiğit Fidan
25'
26'
⚽Guélor Kanga (pen)
43'
⚽Guélor Kanga
🔁Ali Kaan Gunerenout: Driton Camaj
45'
•Luis Mago
58'
Luis Mago
59'
60'
⚽Luccas Claro
Daniel Avramovski
65'
Jurgen Çelhaka
67'
70'
🔁Yusuf Erdoğanout: Burak Coban
70'
🔁Nicolas Janvierout: Recep Niyaz
🔁Ahmet Enginout: Bilal Ceylan
70'
🔁Ali·Barakout: Oguzhan Matur
70'
🔁Mamady·Diarraout: A. Kazmaz
70'
Oguzhan Matur
71'
🔁Daniel Avramovskiout: Buluthan Bulut
78'
80'
🔁Enes Alıçout: Erkan Kaş
80'
🔁Ferhat Yazganout: Mikail Okyar
84'
🔁Kubilay Kanatsızkuşout: Tugay Kaçar
86'
⚽Burak Cobanassist: Recep Niyaz
90+4'
⚽Mame Mor Fayeassist: Burak Coban

Match stats — Muğlaspor vs Esenler Erokspor

43%Possession57%
11Shots13
3On target6
5Corners2
0.97xG3.12

Goals against chances

Muğlaspor0 from 0.97 xGless than the chances were worth
Esenler Erokspor5 from 3.12 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Muğlaspor 4-4-2
  • 17E. KılıçarslanG
  • 28A. EnginD
  • 88Yiğit FidanD
  • 44L. Del PinoD
  • 3A. BarakD
  • 11M. DiarraM
  • 23A. GünerenM
  • 21J. ÇelhakaM
  • 9P. YıldırımM
  • 10D. AvramovskiF
  • 99Y. UzunogluF
Substitutes
  • 20B. BulutM
  • 7D. CamajF
  • 22B. CeylanD
  • 25S. DilliM
  • 31Arel EkinciG
  • 53Alihan KazmazD
  • 5O. MaturD
  • 15O. NahırcıM
  • 13K. OsundinaF
Coach: Y. Koşukavak
Esenler Erokspor 4-1-4-1
  • 22E. CanpolatG
  • 77H. BilazerD
  • 21B. ÖztürkD
  • 4Luccas ClaroD
  • 33E. AlićD
  • 27F. YazganM
  • 11M. FayeM
  • 8G. KangaM
  • 7N. JanvierM
  • 53Y. ErdoğanM
  • 9K. KanatsızkuşF
Substitutes
  • 17B. ÇobanF
  • 34E. ÇetinG
  • 88A. ZeqiriM
  • 14O. UlaşD
  • 18B. SamudioF
  • 70F. OrakD
  • 5M. OkyarM
  • 10R. NiyazM
  • 39E. KaşD
Coach: H. Karaman

Form going into Muğlaspor vs Esenler Erokspor

Muğlaspor

1. Lig

  • L0-6away to Kayserispor2 November 2026
  • W5-0İstanbulspor24 October 2026
  • W4-3away to Manisa F.K.19 October 2026
  • L0-3Bursaspor15 October 2026

Esenler Erokspor

1. Lig

  • W3-2Keçiörengücü30 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Batman Petrolspor25 October 2026
  • W4-2Mardin 196919 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Manisa F.K.15 October 2026

What these results say

  • Every one of these 4 matches for Muğlaspor had three goals or more.
  • Muğlaspor conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Esenler Erokspor scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Esenler Erokspor conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Esenler Erokspor.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Muğlaspor144641825-718
10Esenler Erokspor144642018+218

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Muğlaspor vs Esenler Erokspor

  • 21 January 2018Muğlaspor 2–2 Esenler Erokspor3. Lig - Group 2
  • 26 August 2017Esenler Erokspor 2–0 Muğlaspor3. Lig - Group 2

Leading scorers: Muğlaspor and Esenler Erokspor

Muğlaspor

GoalsAssists

  • M. Diarra41
  • Y. Uzunoglu41

Esenler Erokspor

GoalsAssists

  • G. Kanga51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Esenler Erokspor won 5–0 at Muğlaspor. The model had leaned towards a win for Muğlaspor at 38% and given a win for Esenler Erokspor 35%. The goals: Guélor Kanga (penalty) 26' for Esenler Erokspor, Guélor Kanga 43' for Esenler Erokspor, Luccas Claro 60' for Esenler Erokspor, Burak Coban 86' for Esenler Erokspor, Mame Mor Faye 90+4' for Esenler Erokspor. Sent off: Luis Mago (Muğlaspor) 59'. On expected goals it finished 0.97–3.12.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Muğlaspor a 12.1% chance to finish in the bottom four: 7.8% after a win, 12.6% after a draw, 14.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 14.9%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Muğlaspor v Esenler Erokspor has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 37% / 29% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 38% / 27% / 35%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.

  1. Muğlaspor win38%▲ +1
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. Esenler Erokspor win35%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.