14 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

FC Viktoria Köln vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 3. Liga prediction & result

Sportpark Hohenberg, Cologne
Referee: Cengiz Kabalakli
Full time2 – 2

Final score: FC Viktoria Köln 2-2 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach.

Before kick-off the model made it 66% FC Viktoria Köln, 21% draw, 13% SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach — fair odds of 1.52, 4.76 and 7.69.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Viktoria Köln at 66%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Viktoria Köln6%Draw92%SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Niklas Horst Castelleassist: Pascal Fallmann
5'
⚽Lucas Wolfassist: Niklas Horst Castelle
11'
27'
Volkan Çeliktaş
38'
lukas stoppel
50'
christian mistl
60'
🔁lukas stoppelout: Tim Rossmann
60'
🔁christian mistlout: Fabian Eisele
Pascal Fallmann
61'
🔁Pascal Fallmannout: Marco Pledl
69'
🔁Lucas Wolfout: Taylan Duman
69'
🔁Niklas Horst Castelleout: Jason aman
69'
70'
⚽Fabian Eisele
🔁Niklas Swiderout: Jakob Sachse
80'
🔁David Ottoout: Noah Maboulou
80'
86'
⚽Fabian Eisele (pen)
88'
⚽loris maierassist: Fabian Eisele
90'

Match stats — FC Viktoria Köln vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

48%Possession52%
18Shots13
6On target6
7Corners2

Line-ups

FC Viktoria Köln 4-4-2
  • 1A. SchulzG
  • 19M. SponselD
  • 6T. EisenhuthM
  • 18Tim KlossD
  • 26Killian JakobD
  • 28P. FallmannD
  • 16Niklas JahnM
  • 20Niklas SwiderM
  • 21L. WolfM
  • 10D. OttoF
  • 44N. CastelleF
Substitutes
  • 12D. WyciokG
  • 8T. DumanM
  • 39F. AlbersD
  • 37N. Le BretF
  • 17M. PledlM
  • 9J. SachseF
  • 11Babacar eric gueyeM
  • 22verthomy boboyM
  • 24Jason amanD
Coach: M. Wilhelm
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 4-4-2
  • 1M. ReuleG
  • 8elias jan rahnD
  • 15A. AidonisD
  • 5Volkan ÇeliktaşM
  • 25arbnor nurajD
  • 21luca molinariM
  • 27loris maierM
  • 10L. StoppelM
  • 16marius kundeF
  • 18niklas pollexM
  • 6christian mistlM
Substitutes
  • 13N. ZografakisF
  • 11T. RossmannF
  • 4F. BleicherM
  • 19marius uhlD
  • 37leon schurerM
  • 33tim schulzG
  • 20leon maierM
  • 36Mark GashiD
  • 23F. EiseleF
Coach: Pascal Reinhardt

Form going into FC Viktoria Köln vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

FC Viktoria Köln

All competitions we cover

  • W5-2away to Alemannia Aachen11 October 2026

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

All competitions we cover

  • L1-5Waldhof Mannheim10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

3. Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1FC Viktoria Köln139223618+1829
18SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach133371329-1612

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Viktoria Köln vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

  • 21 February 2020FC Viktoria Köln 1–0 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach3. Liga
  • 24 August 2019SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 0–3 FC Viktoria Köln3. Liga

Leading scorers: FC Viktoria Köln and SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

FC Viktoria Köln

GoalsAssists

  • D. Otto55
  • N. Castelle52

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

No player in 3. Liga's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Viktoria Köln and SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Viktoria Köln at 66% and given a draw 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Niklas Horst Castelle 5' for FC Viktoria Köln, Lucas Wolf 11' for FC Viktoria Köln, Fabian Eisele 70' for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach, loris maier 88' for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Viktoria Köln a 72.1% chance to finish in the top four: 74.1% after a win, 68.9% after a draw, 63.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 68.9%, 3.2 points lower than before the match.

For SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 70.9% going in: 59.4% after a win, 68.5% after a draw, 72.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 68.5%, 2.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 3. Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FC Viktoria Köln v SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 49% / 29% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 66% / 21% / 13%: the biggest move is FC Viktoria Köln's chance of winning, up 17 points.

  1. FC Viktoria Köln win66%▲ +17
  2. Draw21%▼ −8
  3. SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach win13%▼ −9

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.