7 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

Antwerp vs Lommel United Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Bosuilstadion
Referee: Nathan Verboomen, Belgium
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Antwerp 2-2 Lommel United.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Antwerp, 29% draw, 40% Lommel United — fair odds of 3.23, 3.45 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lommel United at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Antwerp3%Draw93%Lommel United4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

15'
•Lucas Schoofs
18'
⚽Don-Angelo Konadu (pen)
Semm Renders
20'
⚽S. Porozo
40'
47'
⚽D. Konaduassist: J. Talvitie
⚽M. Fofana
52'
Snayder Porozo
54'
🔁C. Mejiaout: Y. Hamdaoui
54'
🔁Y. Tsunashimaout: R. Van Helden
55'
63'
🔁T. Gooijerout: N. Rommens
63'
🔁J. Pelupessyout: I. Dada-Mascoll
66'
⚽D. Konadu
🔁M. Benitezout: X. Dierckx
72'
🔁S. Porozoout: M. Frey
72'
72'
🔁J. Talvitieout: R. Seuntjens
78'
🔁S. Appuahout: D. Gordic
🔁M. Fofanaout: F. Adekami
81'
90+1'
Jason van Duiven

Match stats — Antwerp vs Lommel United

55%Possession45%
25Shots13
5On target4
9Corners8
3.02xG2.2

Goals against chances

Antwerp2 from 3.02 xGless than the chances were worth
Lommel United2 from 2.20 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Antwerp 4-2-3-1
  • 41T. NozawaG
  • 17S. RendersD
  • 4Y. TsunashimaD
  • 3A. CortesD
  • 5D. FoulonD
  • 6B. DeuffM
  • 8M. BenitezM
  • 80C. MejiaM
  • 25M. FofanaM
  • 7I. SalahM
  • 33S. PorozoF
Substitutes
  • 81N. DevalckeneerG
  • 20R. Van HeldenD
  • 44M. BusiD
  • 28L. SchelfhoutD
  • 10C. ScottM
  • 11Y. HamdaouiM
  • 22F. AdekamiM
  • 14X. DierckxM
  • 9M. FreyF
Coach: Marvin Compper
Lommel United 4-2-3-1
  • 23M. PieklakG
  • 2J. van DuivenD
  • 3T. EyomaD
  • 4S. AdewoyeD
  • 47T. GooijerD
  • 6J. PelupessyM
  • 41S. NypanM
  • 7J. TalvitieM
  • 15L. SchoofsM
  • 11S. AppuahM
  • 9D. KonaduF
Substitutes
  • 1N. IvezicG
  • 8N. RommensM
  • 22D. GordicM
  • 44I. Dada-MascollM
  • 46N. CorthoutsF
  • 30R. SeuntjensF
  • 10T. ReynersM
  • 73A. Reumers
  • 12E. OdedeF
Coach: Lee Johnson

Form going into Antwerp vs Lommel United

Antwerp

Jupiler Pro League

  • L1-2away to Cercle Brugge1 November 2026
  • W3-0Charleroi24 October 2026
  • L1-5away to KVC Westerlo11 October 2026
  • L0-2Union St. Gilloise20 September 2026

Lommel United

Jupiler Pro League

  • W2-0Gent1 November 2026
  • D2-2away to OH Leuven24 October 2026
  • W3-1away to SK Beveren9 October 2026
  • D0-0KV Mechelen19 September 2026

What these results say

  • Antwerp failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Antwerp scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Antwerp conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Lommel United went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Lommel United scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Antwerp113261824-611
6Lommel United114431513+216

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Antwerp vs Lommel United

  • 26 February 2017Antwerp 1–0 Lommel UnitedChallenger Pro League
  • 16 December 2016Lommel United 2–4 AntwerpChallenger Pro League
  • 23 October 2016Lommel United 1–1 AntwerpChallenger Pro League
  • 19 August 2016Antwerp 0–1 Lommel UnitedChallenger Pro League

Leading scorers: Antwerp and Lommel United

Antwerp

GoalsAssists

  • M. Frey40
  • S. Porozo40

Lommel United

GoalsAssists

  • Don-Angelo Christoffel Annum-Assamoah Konadu51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Antwerp and Lommel United drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Lommel United at 40% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: S. Porozo 40' for Antwerp, D. Konadu 47' for Lommel United, M. Fofana 52' for Antwerp, D. Konadu 66' for Lommel United. On expected goals it finished 3.02–2.20.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Antwerp a 7.6% chance to finish in the bottom two: 4.7% after a win, 7.4% after a draw, 9.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 7.4%.

For Lommel United the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 18.6% going in: 22.9% after a win, 17.0% after a draw, 13.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 17.0%, 1.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Jupiler Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Antwerp v Lommel United has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 30% / 28% / 42% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 31% / 29% / 40%: the biggest move is Lommel United's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Antwerp win31%▲ +1
  2. Draw29%▲ +1
  3. Lommel United win40%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.