7 November 2026, 17:15 UTC

OH Leuven vs KV Mechelen Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Den Dreef, Heverlee
Referee: Lawrence Visser, Belgium
Full time2 – 0

Final score: OH Leuven 2-0 KV Mechelen.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% OH Leuven, 29% draw, 31% KV Mechelen — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

OH Leuven at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

OH Leuven97%Draw3%KV Mechelen0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

32'
🔁M. Decherfout: D. Praet
46'
🔁B. Ramanout: C. Van Meirvenne
⚽E. Addaiassist: R. Mirisola
50'
53'
F. Hammar
J. Lawrence
62'
🔁E. Addaiout: K. Vaesen
72'
🔁O. Gilout: T. Vlietinck
72'
73'
🔁M. Lohunanu-Mbasiout: H. Ozdemir
73'
🔁J. Marsaout: B. Antonio
76'
M. van Brederode
S. Schrijvers
80'
R. Mirisola
86'
88'
🔁F. Hammarout: K. Vanrafelghem
🔁R. Nyakossiout: N. Dussenne
90+3'
⚽W. Balikwisha
90+4'

Match stats — OH Leuven vs KV Mechelen

43%Possession57%
17Shots17
6On target2
6Corners16
1.39xG0.81

Goals against chances

OH Leuven2 from 1.39 xGmore than the chances were worth
KV Mechelen0 from 0.81 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

OH Leuven 3-4-2-1
  • 1Dani van den HeuvelG
  • 5Jamie LawrenceD
  • 28Ewoud PletinckxD
  • 34Roggerio NyakossiD
  • 27Óscar GilM
  • 6Wouter GeorgeM
  • 8Siebe SchrijversM
  • 99Davis OpokuM
  • 7Emmanuel AddaiF
  • 21William BalikwishaF
  • 18Robin MirisolaF
Substitutes
  • 77Thibault VlietinckD
  • 17Kyan VaesenF
  • 3Noë DussenneD
  • 13Kiany VromanG
  • 30Alessandro FontanarosaD
  • 24Łukasz ŁakomyM
  • 48Bryang KayoM
  • 19Chukwubuikem IkwuemesiF
  • 20Shin YamadaF
KV Mechelen 3-4-1-2
  • 1Ortwin De WolfG
  • 20Kobe CorbanieD
  • 44Mike EerdhuijzenD
  • 3José MarsàD
  • 23Simion MichezM
  • 6Fredrik HammarM
  • 30Marco DecherfM
  • 7Thérence KoudouM
  • 9Myron Van BrederodeF
  • 14Benito RamanF
  • 19Malcolm Lohunanu-MbasiF
Substitutes
  • 26Dennis PraetM
  • 17Cedric Jan Van MeirvenneF
  • 29Bill AntonioF
  • 21Halil ÖzdemirF
  • 27Keano VanrafelghemF
  • 15Tijn Van IngelgomG
  • 2Luc MarijnissenD
  • 4Gora DioufD
  • 39Massimo DecoeneM

Form going into OH Leuven vs KV Mechelen

OH Leuven

Jupiler Pro League

  • W2-1away to St. Truiden1 November 2026
  • D2-2Lommel United24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Union St. Gilloise11 October 2026
  • W2-0RAAL La Louvière19 September 2026

KV Mechelen

Jupiler Pro League

  • W3-1away to Kortrijk4 November 2026
  • W1-0Genk31 October 2026
  • W4-3St. Truiden11 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Lommel United19 September 2026

What these results say

  • OH Leuven went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • OH Leuven scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • OH Leuven conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • KV Mechelen went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • KV Mechelen won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • KV Mechelen scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10OH Leuven113351217-512
11KV Mechelen113351320-712

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: OH Leuven vs KV Mechelen

  • 1 February 2026OH Leuven 2–2 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
  • 25 October 2025KV Mechelen 1–1 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League
  • 3 May 2025OH Leuven 1–2 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
  • 13 April 2025KV Mechelen 1–1 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League
  • 31 January 2025OH Leuven 1–0 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
  • 5 October 2024KV Mechelen 5–0 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League

The result against the call

OH Leuven beat KV Mechelen 2–0. The model had made a win for OH Leuven its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: E. Addai 50' for OH Leuven, W. Balikwisha 90+4' for OH Leuven. On expected goals it finished 1.39–0.81.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave OH Leuven a 10.0% chance to finish in the bottom two: 6.4% after a win, 10.5% after a draw, 14.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.4%, 3.6 points lower than before the match.

For KV Mechelen the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 6.3% going in: 2.7% after a win, 6.2% after a draw, 8.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.1%, 1.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Jupiler Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.