7 November 2026, 14:30 UTC

Nieciecza vs Chrobry Głogów I Liga prediction & result

Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza, Nieciecza
Referee: P. Pazdecki
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Nieciecza 2-2 Chrobry Głogów.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Nieciecza, 29% draw, 25% Chrobry Głogów — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Nieciecza at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Nieciecza97%Draw3%Chrobry Głogów0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽D. Hilbrychtassist: I. Durdov
28'
38'
S. Strozik
46'
🔁A. Bukowskiout: R. Bak
46'
🔁S. Strozikout: K. Ibe-Torti
53'
⚽M. Kozajdaassist: J. Lis
K. Zapolnik
54'
55'
R. Bak
⚽I. Durdovassist: D. Hilbrycht
59'
I. Durdov
60'
67'
🔁A. Rybakout: W. Staszak
🔁M. Dragout: O. Slawinski
68'
79'
🔁Y. Sharaburaout: A. Klimek
🔁M. Kozikout: S. Dabrowski
82'
86'
🔁K. Ibe-Tortiout: K. Szablowski
🔁I. Durdovout: Y. Opanasenko
89'
O. Slawinski
90'
90+3'
⚽R. Bakassist: A. Sadiku

Line-ups

Nieciecza
Coach: Marcin Brosz
Chrobry Głogów
Coach: Lukasz Becella

Form going into Nieciecza vs Chrobry Głogów

Nieciecza

I Liga

  • D1-1away to Miedz Legnica31 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Arka Gdynia24 October 2026
  • W2-0Puszcza Niepołomice19 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Unia Skierniewice10 October 2026

Chrobry Głogów

I Liga

  • D0-0Arka Gdynia3 November 2026
  • D0-0away to Stal Mielec24 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Polonia Bytom17 October 2026
  • L0-4Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Nieciecza scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Nieciecza failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Nieciecza conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Chrobry Głogów did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Chrobry Głogów failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Nieciecza146442220+222
14Chrobry Głogów143651517-215

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Nieciecza vs Chrobry Głogów

  • 7 December 2024Nieciecza 3–2 Chrobry GłogówI Liga
  • 27 July 2024Chrobry Głogów 0–4 NiecieczaI Liga
  • 18 February 2024Nieciecza 1–1 Chrobry GłogówI Liga
  • 5 August 2023Chrobry Głogów 0–5 NiecieczaI Liga
  • 4 March 2023Chrobry Głogów 0–2 NiecieczaI Liga
  • 11 August 2022Nieciecza 3–1 Chrobry GłogówI Liga

The result against the call

Nieciecza and Chrobry Głogów drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Nieciecza at 46% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: D. Hilbrycht 28' for Nieciecza, M. Kozajda 53' for Chrobry Głogów, I. Durdov 59' for Nieciecza, R. Bak 90+3' for Chrobry Głogów.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Nieciecza a 17.6% chance to finish in the top two: 20.6% after a win, 15.3% after a draw, 12.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 15.3%, 2.3 points lower than before the match.

For Chrobry Głogów the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 24.2% going in: 16.1% after a win, 22.7% after a draw, 27.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 22.7%, 1.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our I Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Nieciecza v Chrobry Głogów has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 50% / 27% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 46% / 29% / 25%: the biggest move is Nieciecza's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Nieciecza win46%▼ −4
  2. Draw29%▲ +2
  3. Chrobry Głogów win25%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.