Sabah FA vs Qarabag Premyer Liqa prediction & result
Final score: Sabah FA 0-0 Qarabag.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% Sabah FA, 24% draw, 21% Qarabag — fair odds of 1.82, 4.17 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Sabah FA at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 92S. Pokatilov
- 10A. Isayev
- 20J. Mickels
- 21V. Simic
- 80A. Zedadka
- 3S. Solvet
- 27T. Puchacz
- 13I. Lepinjica
- 11K. Parris
- 7U. Rakhmonaliyev
- 4A. McCarthy
- 94R. Mirzammadov
- 17T. Mutallimov
- 5R. Dashdamirov
- 6A. Khaybulaev
- 9K. Aliyev
- 37Du Queiroz
- 33Junior Almeida
- 99O. Mbina
- 88R. Fernandes
- 1S. Mahammadaliyev
- 55B. Huseynov
- 8M. Jankovic
- 20Kady Borges
- 2Matheus Silva
- 5B. Langa
- 29R. Cephas
- 9Z. Sawo
- 21O. Kashchuk
- 4B. Varkonyi
- 33Diego Rosa
- 12T. Hasanov
- 13B. Mustafazada
- 22M. Qurbanly
- 32H. Cabrayilzada
- 25C. Makreckis
- 19T. Ismaheel
- 7J. Mouaddib
- 35Pedro Bicalho
- 11R. Khadra
Form going into Sabah FA vs Qarabag
Sabah FA
Premyer Liqa
- W4-0away to Qabala17 October 2026
- D0-0away to Neftchi Baku9 October 2026
Qarabag
Premyer Liqa
- D3-3Neftchi Baku17 October 2026
- W2-0away to Imisli FK11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sabah FA | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 6 | +16 | 21 |
| 4 | Qarabag | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sabah FA vs Qarabag
- 22 April 2026Sabah FA 2–1 QarabagCup
- 18 April 2026Qarabag 0–1 Sabah FAPremyer Liqa
- 3 April 2026Qarabag 2–2 Sabah FACup
- 1 March 2026Qarabag 3–3 Sabah FAPremyer Liqa
- 18 December 2025Sabah FA 2–1 QarabagPremyer Liqa
- 31 May 2025Qarabag 2–3 Sabah FACup
Leading scorers: Sabah FA and Qarabag
Sabah FA
GoalsAssists
- U. Rahmonaliyev10
Qarabag
No player in Premyer Liqa's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sabah FA and Qarabag drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Sabah FA at 55% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sabah FA a 72.1% chance to finish top of the regular season: 78.0% after a win, 70.1% after a draw, 58.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 70.1%, 2 points lower than before the match.
For Qarabag the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 19.1% going in: 30.5% after a win, 19.2% after a draw, 13.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 19.2%.
Read from our Premyer Liqa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Sabah FA v Qarabag has moved
First published on 11 Oct at 53% / 24% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 55% / 24% / 21%: the biggest move is Sabah FA's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Sabah FA win55%▲ +2
- Draw24%=
- Qarabag win21%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.