Cherno More Varna vs Botev Vratsa First League prediction & result
Final score: Cherno More Varna 1-0 Botev Vratsa.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Cherno More Varna, 30% draw, 31% Botev Vratsa — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Cherno More Varna at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cherno More Varna vs Botev Vratsa
Line-ups
- 81K. TomovG
- 3Z. AtanasovD
- 7M. BarandasF
- 37V. KerchevD
- 19G. LazarovF
- 71V. PanayotovM
- 50E. TombakD
- 14A. TodorovD
- 24David TelesM
- 5L. SquadroneD
- 10Celso SidneyF
- 17I. TasevF
- 93G. VentsislavovD
- 11M. AchiM
- 6M. BanevM
- 29B. BeyhanM
- 8A. DonchevF
- 31D. HristovG
- 26João BandaróD
- 22N. KostadinovM
- 94M. OrlinovG
- 25A. BuchkovD
- 21M. DimitrovD
- 10J. GallegosM
- 4I. GoranovF
- 97V. NaydenovF
- 79M. PetkovF
- 3S. SanyangD
- 36M. StoevD
- 7R. TsonevM
- 12I. YurukovM
- 81K. HadjiM
- 6A. KichukovM
- 17S. MechevF
- 24M. SmolenskiM
- 90F. GigovF
- 9D. GenovD
- 88L. BoyanovD
- 11M. AchkovD
- 98L. VasilevG
Form going into Cherno More Varna vs Botev Vratsa
Cherno More Varna
First League
- W2-0Septemvri Sofia27 October 2026
- L0-2Levski Sofia11 October 2026
- D1-1away to Arda Kardzhali19 September 2026
Botev Vratsa
First League
- D1-1away to Lokomotiv Sofia24 October 2026
- L0-1Spartak Varna10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Dunav Ruse19 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Cherno More Varna | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 13 |
| 13 | Botev Vratsa | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cherno More Varna vs Botev Vratsa
- 19 July 2026Botev Vratsa 1–1 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 20 February 2026Cherno More Varna 0–0 Botev VratsaFirst League
- 29 August 2025Botev Vratsa 1–0 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 7 December 2024Botev Vratsa 2–3 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 12 August 2024Cherno More Varna 2–1 Botev VratsaFirst League
The result against the call
Cherno More Varna beat Botev Vratsa 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Cherno More Varna at 39%. The goal: celso sidney 70' for Cherno More Varna.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cherno More Varna a 34.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 23.2% after a win, 35.9% after a draw, 46.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 23.2%, 10.8 points lower than before the match.
For Botev Vratsa the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 27.1% going in: 14.9% after a win, 27.3% after a draw, 34.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.6%, 7.5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our First League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.