24 October 2026, 15:15 UTC

Catanzaro vs Ascoli Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Nicola Ceravolo, Catanzaro
Referee: Andrea Calzavara, Italy
Full time1 – 6

Final score: Catanzaro 1-6 Ascoli.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Catanzaro, 29% draw, 32% Ascoli — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Catanzaro at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Catanzaro0%Draw1%Ascoli99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽N'Dri Koffiassist: Federico Di Francesco
18'
21'
⚽Gabriele Goriassist: Andrea·Silipo
32'
⚽Gennao Acamporaassist: Simone D'Uffizi
36'
⚽Federico Gattoniassist: Andrea Oliveri
39'
Federico Gattoni
45+1'
⚽Giovanni Corradiniassist: Gabriele Gori
45'
🔁Gennao Acamporaout: Tommaso Milanese
🔁N'Dri Koffiout: Marco D'Alessandro
45'
53'
⚽Tommaso Milanese
🔁Marco Ruggeroout: Niccolò Postiglione
56'
🔁Federico Di Francescoout: Nicolo Buso
56'
🔁Simone Pafundiout: Nicola Mosti
56'
60'
🔁Giovanni Corradiniout: Sergiu Perciun
60'
🔁Samuele Damianiout: Matteo Ricci
60'
🔁Andrea·Silipoout: Giacomo De Pieri
72'
🔁Andrea Oliveriout: Lorenzo Venuti
76'
⚽Gabriele Goriassist: Sergiu Perciun
🔁Franky Tchaounaout: Gabriele Alesi
78'
Gabriele Alesi
81'
90+2'
Gabriele Gori

Match stats — Catanzaro vs Ascoli

42%Possession58%
17Shots24
8On target10
5Corners9
1.86xG3.93

Goals against chances

Catanzaro1 from 1.86 xGless than the chances were worth
Ascoli6 from 3.93 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Catanzaro 3-4-2-1
  • 22M. PigliacelliG
  • 24M. RuggeroD
  • 4Matias AntoniniD
  • 3M. ImperialeD
  • 27A. CandelaM
  • 28F. TchaounaM
  • 10J. PetriccioneM
  • 29F. Di FrancescoM
  • 20S. PafundiM
  • 9P. IemmelloM
  • 19N. KoffiF
Substitutes
  • 91G. ArditiF
  • 30G. AlesiF
  • 7N. BusoF
  • 21F. CassaM
  • 77M. D'AlessandroF
  • 93M. DorvalD
  • 62R. FrosininiD
  • 1C. MariettaG
  • 98N. MostiM
Coach: Giorgio Gorgone
Ascoli 4-2-3-1
  • 1S. VitaleG
  • 14A. OliveriD
  • 32F. GattoniD
  • 33N. RizzoD
  • 19A. GuiébréD
  • 8G. CorradiniM
  • 4S. DamianiM
  • 7A. SilipoM
  • 13G. AcamporaM
  • 15S. D'UffiziM
  • 35G. GoriF
Substitutes
  • 99Matteo BrunoriF
  • 9A. ChakirF
  • 45G. CrespiG
  • 30M. CuradoD
  • 21G. De PieriM
  • 18L. Lo ScalzoM
  • 62T. MilaneseM
  • 3M. NicolettiD
  • 11S. PerciunM
Coach: Francesco Tomei

Form going into Catanzaro vs Ascoli

Catanzaro

Serie B

  • D2-2away to Hellas Verona16 October 2026

Ascoli

Serie B

  • D1-1Empoli17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20Catanzaro111371123-126
3Ascoli11551177+1020

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Catanzaro vs Ascoli

  • 10 February 2024Catanzaro 3–2 AscoliSerie B
  • 16 December 2023Ascoli 1–0 CatanzaroSerie B

Leading scorers: Catanzaro and Ascoli

Catanzaro

No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.

Ascoli

GoalsAssists

  • A. Silipo41
  • G. Gori32

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Ascoli won 6–1 at Catanzaro. The model had leaned towards a win for Catanzaro at 39% and given a win for Ascoli 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: N'Dri Koffi 18' for Catanzaro, Gabriele Gori 21' for Ascoli, Gennao Acampora 32' for Ascoli, Federico Gattoni 36' for Ascoli, Giovanni Corradini 45+1' for Ascoli, Tommaso Milanese 53' for Ascoli, Gabriele Gori 76' for Ascoli. On expected goals it finished 1.86–3.93.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Catanzaro a 12.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 9.7% after a win, 13.8% after a draw, 15.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.3%, 2.5 points higher than before the match.

For Ascoli the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 11.3% going in: 14.5% after a win, 10.9% after a draw, 8.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 14.5%, 3.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.