24 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Virtus Entella vs Mantova Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Comunale, Chiavari
Referee: Paride Tremolada
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Virtus Entella 0-1 Mantova.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Virtus Entella, 28% draw, 33% Mantova — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Virtus Entella at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Virtus Entella0%Draw4%Mantova96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

10'
⚽Ettore Gliozziassist: Tommaso Del Lungo
12'
•Ettore Gliozzi
Andrea Tiritiello
36'
42'
Tommaso Del Lungo
45+3'
Francesco Modesto
M. Alborghetti
51'
55'
Stefano Cella
58'
🔁Lorenzo Ignacchitiout: Rachid Kouda
59'
🔁Tommaso Del Lungoout: David·Wieser
🔁Luca Parodiout: Marwane Kritta
62'
🔁Giacomo Coronaout: M Tirelli
69'
🔁Niccolo Squizzatoout: Tommaso Annoni
69'
M Tirelli
74'
77'
🔁Ettore Gliozziout: matteo spinacce
77'
🔁Francesco Ruoccoout: Davide Bragantini
🔁Andrea Franzoniout: Luigi Cuppone
78'
🔁M. Alborghettiout: Luca Vignali
78'
85'
matteo spinacce
90'
Bodin Tomašević
Luigi Cuppone
90'
90+1'
Simone Trimboli
Leonardo Benedetti
90+1'

Match stats — Virtus Entella vs Mantova

44%Possession56%
15Shots7
4On target3
5Corners1
1.37xG1.01

Goals against chances

Virtus Entella0 from 1.37 xGless than the chances were worth
Mantova1 from 1.01 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Virtus Entella 3-5-2
  • 12E. TorrielliG
  • 23L. ParodiD
  • 6A. TiritielloD
  • 27M. AlborghettiD
  • 94F. MezzoniM
  • 24A. FranzoniM
  • 5N. SquizzatoM
  • 80L. BenedettiM
  • 26Stefano Di MarioM
  • 9Giacomo CoronaF
  • 11Bernat GuiuF
Substitutes
  • 22F. Del FrateG
  • 10L. CupponeF
  • 55Lucas FelippeM
  • 40Gabriele CostaM
  • 18T. AnnoniM
  • 70Marwane KrittaD
  • 39M. MotoleseD
  • 3N. PrevitaliD
  • 1Matteo TassaraG
Coach: A. Chiappella
Mantova 3-4-2-1
  • 22F. BardiG
  • 5B. TomaševićD
  • 29S. CellaD
  • 27A. CastelliniD
  • 58Tommaso Del LungoM
  • 21S. TrimboliM
  • 25L. IgnacchitiM
  • 50F. Benaissa-YahiaM
  • 8R. IlieM
  • 19F. RuoccoM
  • 9E. GliozziF
Substitutes
  • 10D. WieserM
  • 30D. BragantiniF
  • 11I. CajazzoM
  • 1L. GemelloG
  • 6J. MboyoM
  • 80R. KoudaM
  • 75E. KošpoD
  • 13A. MeroniD
  • 17N. RadaelliD
Coach: F. Modesto

Form going into Virtus Entella vs Mantova

Virtus Entella

Serie B

  • W2-1away to Padova17 October 2026

Mantova

Serie B

  • L0-2Palermo17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Virtus Entella112451114-310
4Mantova115421511+419

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Virtus Entella vs Mantova

  • 6 April 2026Mantova 1–0 Virtus EntellaSerie B
  • 14 September 2025Virtus Entella 1–0 MantovaSerie B

Leading scorers: Virtus Entella and Mantova

Virtus Entella

No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.

Mantova

GoalsAssists

  • F. Ruocco50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Mantova won 1–0 at Virtus Entella. The model had leaned towards a win for Virtus Entella at 39% and given a win for Mantova 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Ettore Gliozzi 10' for Mantova. On expected goals it finished 1.37–1.01.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Virtus Entella a 7.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 4.8% after a win, 8.5% after a draw, 9.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.1%, 1.6 points higher than before the match.

For Mantova the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 16.4% going in: 20.9% after a win, 16.2% after a draw, 12.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 20.9%, 4.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.