24 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Cremonese vs Juve Stabia Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Giovanni Zini, Cremona
Referee: Giuseppe Mucera, Italy
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Cremonese 0-1 Juve Stabia.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Cremonese, 31% draw, 36% Juve Stabia — fair odds of 3.03, 3.23 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Juve Stabia at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cremonese0%Draw3%Juve Stabia97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

24'
⚽Marco Bellichassist: Fabio Maistro
•Marco Nasti
40'
🔁Fellipe Jackout: Salvatore Elia
56'
🔁Marco Nastiout: Manuel De Luca
59'
61'
🔁Justin Kumiout: Nermin Karić
72'
🔁Fabio Maistroout: Leonardo Candellone
72'
🔁Giusepe Sibilliout: Romeo Sandrucci
🔁Alberto Grassiout: Alessandro Vogliacco
77'
🔁Tommaso Barbieriout: Milan Djuric
78'
🔁Jari Vandeputteout: Federico Bonazzoli
78'
80'
🔁Federico Artioliout: Matteo Baldi
81'
🔁Antonio Di Nardoout: Sana Fernandes
90+4'
Leonardo Candellone

Match stats — Cremonese vs Juve Stabia

55%Possession45%
20Shots13
6On target2
6Corners4
1.63xG0.73

Goals against chances

Cremonese0 from 1.63 xGless than the chances were worth
Juve Stabia1 from 0.73 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cremonese 4-1-4-1
  • 1A. FulignatiG
  • 4T. BarbieriD
  • 6F. BaschirottoD
  • 5S. LupertoD
  • 13Fellipe JackD
  • 33A. GrassiM
  • 10Adin LičinaM
  • 2M. ThorsbyM
  • 14T. BertiM
  • 27J. VandeputteM
  • 19M. NastiF
Substitutes
  • 90F. BonazzoliF
  • 9M. De LucaF
  • 71S. EliaM
  • 12M. FestaG
  • 26Gabriel HerzuahF
  • 17A. LickūnasF
  • 25D. LordkipanidzeM
  • 8Simone Lottici TessadriM
  • 28simone marsiD
Coach: F. Pecchia
Juve Stabia 4-3-3
  • 1A. VukovićG
  • 96T. MaggioniD
  • 87D. BettellaD
  • 6M. BellichD
  • 25T. DouglasD
  • 10C. PierobonM
  • 80F. ArtioliM
  • 24J. KumiM
  • 37F. MaistroF
  • 9Antonio Di NardoF
  • 33G. SibilliF
Substitutes
  • 5T. BattistellaM
  • 4M. BaldiD
  • 23P. BoerG
  • 8D. BuglioM
  • 27L. CandelloneF
  • 92F. GalleaD
  • 17N. KarićM
  • 77S. FernandesF
  • 7Nicola PatanèF
Coach: P. De Giorgio

Form going into Cremonese vs Juve Stabia

Cremonese

Serie B

  • L1-3away to Pisa17 October 2026

Juve Stabia

Serie B

  • W3-0Sudtirol18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Cremonese114341412+215
13Juve Stabia114431211+112

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cremonese vs Juve Stabia

  • 25 May 2025Cremonese 3–0 Juve StabiaSerie B
  • 21 May 2025Juve Stabia 2–1 CremoneseSerie B
  • 13 April 2025Cremonese 1–1 Juve StabiaSerie B
  • 20 October 2024Juve Stabia 1–2 CremoneseSerie B
  • 27 July 2020Juve Stabia 1–2 CremoneseSerie B
  • 26 December 2019Cremonese 1–1 Juve StabiaSerie B

Leading scorers: Cremonese and Juve Stabia

Cremonese

GoalsAssists

  • F. Bonazzoli62

Juve Stabia

GoalsAssists

  • Antonio Di Nardo70

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Juve Stabia won 1–0 at Cremonese. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Juve Stabia at 36%. The goal: Marco Bellich 24' for Juve Stabia. On expected goals it finished 1.63–0.73.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cremonese a 35.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 29.2% after a win, 35.9% after a draw, 41.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 41.2%, 5.4 points higher than before the match.

For Juve Stabia the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 10.6% going in: 7.4% after a win, 11.3% after a draw, 13.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.4%, 3.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Cremonese v Juve Stabia has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 51% / 28% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 33% / 31% / 36%: the biggest move is Cremonese's chance of winning, down 18 points.

  1. Cremonese win33%▼ −18
  2. Draw31%▲ +3
  3. Juve Stabia win36%▲ +15

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.