25 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata Super League 1 prediction & result

Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium, Piraeus
Referee: Zampalas, Spyros
Full time5 – 0

Final score: Olympiakos Piraeus 5-0 Kalamata.

Before kick-off the model made it 57% Olympiakos Piraeus, 25% draw, 18% Kalamata — fair odds of 1.75, 4.00 and 5.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Olympiakos Piraeus at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Olympiakos Piraeus99%Draw1%Kalamata0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Gustavo Sá
17'
37'
Marcelino Carreazo
⚽Jota Silvaassist: Joel Roca
37'
⚽Jota Silvaassist: Gustavo Sá
40'
🔁Gustavo Sáout: Chiquinho
45'
⚽Jota Silvaassist: Nayair Tiknizyan
46'
Gustavo Puerta
48'
50'
Gonzalo Agustín Piñeiro
🔁Gustavo Puertaout: Santiago Hezze
60'
🔁Armando Gonzálezout: Marius Mouandilmadji
60'
61'
🔁Marcelino Carreazoout: J. Cataldi
61'
🔁David Kurminowskiout: Jovanny Bolivar
⚽Marius Mouandilmadji
74'
75'
🔁Gonzalo Agustín Piñeiroout: Josete Miranda
75'
🔁Kenneth Vargasout: Aarón Martin Luis
🔁Jota Silvaout: Leon Bailey
75'
🔁Joel Rocaout: Kostas Fortounis
79'
83'
🔁Stefanos Stroungisout: M. Bakayoko
⚽Leon Bailey
85'
90+1'
Josete Miranda

Match stats — Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata

66%Possession34%
17Shots3
10On target2
7Corners1
0xG0

Goals against chances

Olympiakos Piraeus5 from 0.00 xGmore than the chances were worth
Kalamata0 from 0.00 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Olympiakos Piraeus 4-2-3-1
  • 1S. OrtegaG
  • 27M. PedersenD
  • 4Z. SmajlovićD
  • 5L. PirolaD
  • 71N. TiknizyanD
  • 15G. PuertaM
  • 19R. FreulerM
  • 73Joel RocaM
  • 8Gustavo SáM
  • 20Jota SilvaM
  • 34A. GonzálezF
Substitutes
  • 10Gelson MartinsM
  • 17L. BaileyF
  • 7K. FortounisM
  • 32S. HezzeM
  • 22ChiquinhoM
  • 6David CarmoD
  • 99M. MouandilmadjiF
  • 70S. OnyemaechiD
  • 31B. PopovićG
Coach: Imanol Alguacil
Kalamata 4-2-3-1
  • 40N. VasiljevićG
  • 21M. CarreazoD
  • 4S. StroungisD
  • 97RodriguesD
  • 22P. KaloutsikidisD
  • 23G. PiñeiroM
  • 12I. ChatzitheodoridisM
  • 77K. VargasM
  • 10A. SigurðssonM
  • 20A. Mendes MoreiraM
  • 91D. KurminowskiF
Substitutes
  • 18P. PanagiotouD
  • 11Josete MirandaF
  • 5AarónM
  • 29U. IgnjatovićD
  • 44A. GuessandD
  • 26P. GinisG
  • 1I. GeliosG
  • 7J. CataldiM
  • 32J. BonettoF
Coach: Panagiotis Christofileas

Form going into Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata

Olympiakos Piraeus

Super League 1

  • W2-0away to Panetolikos18 October 2026
  • W1-0Panathinaikos11 October 2026

Kalamata

Super League 1

  • W4-3OFI18 October 2026
  • W3-1away to PAOK12 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Super League 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Olympiakos Piraeus10721165+1123
8Kalamata103341519-412

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata

  • 15 January 2020Olympiakos Piraeus 4–1 KalamataCup
  • 8 January 2020Kalamata 0–2 Olympiakos PiraeusCup

Leading scorers: Olympiakos Piraeus and Kalamata

Olympiakos Piraeus

GoalsAssists

  • Jota Silva51

Kalamata

GoalsAssists

  • D. Kurminowski50
  • J. Bolívar30

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Olympiakos Piraeus beat Kalamata 5–0. The model had made a win for Olympiakos Piraeus its most likely outcome, at 57%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Jota Silva 37' for Olympiakos Piraeus, Jota Silva 40' for Olympiakos Piraeus, Jota Silva 46' for Olympiakos Piraeus, Marius Mouandilmadji 74' for Olympiakos Piraeus, Leon Bailey 85' for Olympiakos Piraeus. On expected goals it finished 0.00–0.00.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Olympiakos Piraeus a 87.8% chance to finish in the top four: 90.8% after a win, 85.2% after a draw, 80.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 90.8%, 3 points higher than before the match.

For Kalamata the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 5.9% going in: 11.2% after a win, 6.9% after a draw, 4.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.0%, 1.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Super League 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Olympiakos Piraeus v Kalamata has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 62% / 25% / 13% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 57% / 25% / 18%: the biggest move is Olympiakos Piraeus's chance of winning, down 5 points.

  1. Olympiakos Piraeus win57%▼ −5
  2. Draw25%=
  3. Kalamata win18%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.