Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos Super League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Aris Thessalonikis 3-0 Panetolikos.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Aris Thessalonikis, 27% draw, 22% Panetolikos — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Aris Thessalonikis at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 33Ricardo VelhoG
- 2J. PétrisD
- 4FabianoD
- 97F. JensenD
- 3O. RichardsD
- 18M. HonglaM
- 10U. RačićM
- 7B. GarréM
- 8C. KouaméM
- 70G. GianniotasM
- 9T. KadewereF
- 77BrumaF
- 17Rafa MirF
- 34S. PalaciosF
- 80Loren MorónF
- 21L. MajkićG
- 30Christos KamtsisD
- 20T. Dele-BashiruM
- 22M. VoriazidisM
- 41Konstantinos CharoupasM
- 99Y. KucherenkoG
- 45David GaliatsosD
- 8K. ThymianisD
- 49N. StajićD
- 4E. OlssonD
- 15Christian ManriqueD
- 22Diego EstebanM
- 44N. ErakovićM
- 10A. BassiM
- 9José Mateo Mejía PiedrahitaF
- 14K. AleksićF
- 26Aristidis AlbanisF
- 65A. ApostolopoulosD
- 20Youssouph BadjiF
- 19A. BregouM
- 25Endri GoxhajM
- 23V. XenopoulosG
- 11S. SoumahF
- 7L. SmyrlisF
- 1Michalis PardalosG
Form going into Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos
Aris Thessalonikis
Super League 1
- L0-3away to Levadiakos1 November 2026
- W3-1Atromitos25 October 2026
- W2-1away to Kifisia18 October 2026
- W3-2Volos NFC11 October 2026
Panetolikos
Super League 1
- L0-1OFI1 November 2026
- L0-5away to AEK Athens FC24 October 2026
- L0-2Olympiakos Piraeus18 October 2026
- L0-2away to Kifisia11 October 2026
What these results say
- Aris Thessalonikis conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Aris Thessalonikis had three goals or more.
- Aris Thessalonikis won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Panetolikos did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Panetolikos failed to score in every one of these 4 matches.
- Panetolikos conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Aris Thessalonikis | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 19 |
| 10 | Panetolikos | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos
- 31 January 2026Panetolikos 0–1 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
- 6 January 2026Aris Thessalonikis 2–0 PanetolikosCup
- 17 September 2025Panetolikos 0–1 Aris ThessalonikisCup
- 30 August 2025Aris Thessalonikis 0–2 PanetolikosSuper League 1
- 23 February 2025Aris Thessalonikis 2–1 PanetolikosSuper League 1
- 9 November 2024Panetolikos 2–1 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
Leading scorers: Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos
Aris Thessalonikis
GoalsAssists
- Fabiano40
- C. Kouamé30
- T. Kadewere30
Panetolikos
No player in Super League 1's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Aris Thessalonikis beat Panetolikos 3–0. The model had made a win for Aris Thessalonikis its most likely outcome, at 51%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Tino Kadewere 11' for Aris Thessalonikis, Tino Kadewere 49' for Aris Thessalonikis, Giannis Gianniotas 58' for Aris Thessalonikis. On expected goals it finished 2.06–0.93.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Aris Thessalonikis a 9.9% chance to finish in the top four: 11.8% after a win, 7.5% after a draw, 5.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.8%, 1.9 points higher than before the match.
For Panetolikos the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 44.9% going in: 32.3% after a win, 44.4% after a draw, 49.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 49.3%, 4.4 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Super League 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Aris Thessalonikis v Panetolikos has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 48% / 28% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 51% / 27% / 22%: the biggest move is Aris Thessalonikis's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Aris Thessalonikis win51%▲ +3
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Panetolikos win22%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.