Chelsea vs Tottenham Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Chelsea 0-2 Tottenham.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% Chelsea, 24% draw, 23% Tottenham — fair odds of 1.89, 4.17 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
All Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Chelsea at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Chelsea vs Tottenham
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 39M. PendersG
- 34Joshua Kofi AcheampongD
- 5M. LacroixD
- 6L. ColwillD
- 7Pedro NetoM
- 25M. CaicedoM
- 14J. HendersonM
- 21J. HatoM
- 10C. PalmerM
- 23Geovany Tcherno QuendaM
- 17M. RogersF
- 28T. Sharman-LoweG
- 27M. GustoD
- 2M. PalestraD
- 4V. BarcoM
- 45R. LaviaM
- 32M. Nicoll-JazuliM
- 41EstêvãoF
- 18D. WelbeckF
- 3W. FofanaD
- 31A. KinskýG
- 14A. GrayD
- 6J. van HeckeD
- 37M. van de VenD
- 3A. RobertsonD
- 18Mateus FernandesM
- 16S. TonaliM
- 20M. KudusM
- 10J. MaddisonM
- 11M. TelM
- 22Omar MarmoushF
- 19D. SolankeF
- 68L. Williams-BarnettM
- 52Callum Latif OlusesiM
- 21D. KulusevskiM
- 8C. GallagherM
- 33B. DaviesD
- 23Pedro PorroD
- 5M. SenesiD
- 39M. DúbravkaG
Form going into Chelsea vs Tottenham
Chelsea
Premier League
- W2-0away to Everton17 October 2026
- W5-1Bournemouth10 October 2026
Tottenham
Premier League
- W3-1Coventry19 October 2026
- D1-1away to Manchester United10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Chelsea | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 16 | +3 | 16 |
| 11 | Tottenham | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Chelsea vs Tottenham
Chelsea and Tottenham have met 7 times in the records we hold, Chelsea has won 5 of them to Tottenham's 2.
The record
Tottenham won the last one 2–0 on 24 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 8 |
| Tottenham | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 11 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 19 goals, an average of 2.71 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 24 Oct 2026
Premier LeagueChelsea 0–2 Tottenham - 1 Aug 2026
Friendlies ClubsChelsea 1–2 Tottenham - 19 May 2026
Premier LeagueChelsea 2–1 Tottenham - 1 Nov 2025
Premier LeagueTottenham 0–1 Chelsea - 3 Apr 2025
Premier LeagueChelsea 1–0 Tottenham - 8 Dec 2024
Premier LeagueTottenham 3–4 Chelsea - 2 May 2024
Premier LeagueChelsea 2–0 Tottenham
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Chelsea's attack rates 43% above Tottenham's, and Tottenham concede 13% fewer than Chelsea. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Chelsea and Tottenham
Chelsea
GoalsAssists
- João Pedro53
- M. Rogers51
- Pedro Neto31
Tottenham
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Tottenham won 2–0 at Chelsea. The model had leaned towards a win for Chelsea at 53% and given a win for Tottenham 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Mike Penders (own goal) 77' for Tottenham, Mathys Tel 87' for Tottenham. Sent off: Cole Palmer (Chelsea) 80'. On expected goals it finished 0.51–0.80.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Chelsea a 22.6% chance to finish in the top four: 24.8% after a win, 20.3% after a draw, 17.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.7%, 4.9 points lower than before the match.
For Tottenham the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 37.1% going in: 30.3% after a win, 34.6% after a draw, 40.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 30.3%, 6.8 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Chelsea v Tottenham has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 51% / 24% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 53% / 24% / 23%: the biggest move is Chelsea's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Chelsea win53%▲ +2
- Draw24%=
- Tottenham win23%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.