7 November 2026, 14:30 UTC

Arka Gdynia vs Podbeskidzie I Liga prediction & result

Stadion Miejski w Gdyni, Gdynia
Referee: P. Swierczek
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Arka Gdynia 3-1 Podbeskidzie.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Arka Gdynia, 30% draw, 28% Podbeskidzie — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Arka Gdynia at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Arka Gdynia99%Draw1%Podbeskidzie0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

24'
⚽L. Klisiewiczassist: M. Rakoczy
D. Gojny
39'
🔁A. Sidibeout: M. Milewski
46'
⚽M. Milewskiassist: K. Lipkowski
51'
57'
K. Sochan
⚽V. Gutkovskisassist: K. Solecki
58'
60'
🔁A. Iwanczykout: O. Sewerzynski
60'
🔁M. Urynowiczout: Y. Shikavka
M. Milewski
61'
69'
🔁K. Smolinskiout: D. Takac
69'
🔁B. Martoszout: D. Pietraszkiewicz
M. Ambrosiewicz
70'
🔁S. Lewkotout: M. Rzuchowski
73'
🔁V. Gutkovskisout: E. Rama
80'
🔁D. Kocylaout: K. Gruszkowski
80'
⚽E. Ramaassist: M. Ambrosiewicz
82'
83'
🔁K. Sochanout: J. Majsterek
🔁K. Lipkowskiout: J. Kowalski
85'

Line-ups

Arka Gdynia
Coach: Tomasz Grzegorczyk
Podbeskidzie
Coach: Marcin Wlodarski

Form going into Arka Gdynia vs Podbeskidzie

Arka Gdynia

I Liga

  • D0-0away to Chrobry Głogów3 November 2026
  • W3-1Nieciecza24 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Lechia Gdansk18 October 2026
  • L1-2Polonia Warszawa10 October 2026

Podbeskidzie

I Liga

  • D1-1Warta Poznań31 October 2026
  • W2-1Stal Rzeszów25 October 2026
  • L0-1away to ŁKS Łódź18 October 2026
  • W1-0Pogoń Siedlce9 October 2026

What these results say

  • Arka Gdynia failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Arka Gdynia scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Arka Gdynia conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Podbeskidzie scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Podbeskidzie conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Podbeskidzie had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Arka Gdynia145361917+218
15Podbeskidzie142931720-315

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Arka Gdynia vs Podbeskidzie

  • 3 May 2024Podbeskidzie 0–0 Arka GdyniaI Liga
  • 4 November 2023Arka Gdynia 1–0 PodbeskidzieI Liga
  • 12 November 2022Arka Gdynia 2–2 PodbeskidzieI Liga
  • 17 July 2022Podbeskidzie 0–1 Arka GdyniaI Liga
  • 13 May 2022Podbeskidzie 1–1 Arka GdyniaI Liga
  • 5 November 2021Arka Gdynia 1–0 PodbeskidzieI Liga

The result against the call

Arka Gdynia beat Podbeskidzie 3–1. The model had made a win for Arka Gdynia its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: L. Klisiewicz 24' for Podbeskidzie, M. Milewski 51' for Arka Gdynia, V. Gutkovskis 58' for Arka Gdynia, E. Rama 82' for Arka Gdynia.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Arka Gdynia a 15.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 11.3% after a win, 16.9% after a draw, 20.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.3%, 4.5 points lower than before the match.

For Podbeskidzie the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 17.8% going in: 11.4% after a win, 17.0% after a draw, 21.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.6%, 3.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our I Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Arka Gdynia v Podbeskidzie has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 41% / 29% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 42% / 30% / 28%: the biggest move is Podbeskidzie's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Arka Gdynia win42%▲ +1
  2. Draw30%▲ +1
  3. Podbeskidzie win28%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.