Puszcza Niepołomice vs Miedz Legnica I Liga prediction & result
Final score: Puszcza Niepołomice 1-1 Miedz Legnica.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Puszcza Niepołomice, 30% draw, 32% Miedz Legnica — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Puszcza Niepołomice at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
Form going into Puszcza Niepołomice vs Miedz Legnica
Puszcza Niepołomice
I Liga
- D2-2away to Stal Rzeszów2 November 2026
- W2-1Lechia Gdansk24 October 2026
- L0-2away to Nieciecza19 October 2026
- W3-1away to Pogoń Siedlce15 October 2026
Miedz Legnica
I Liga
- D1-1Nieciecza31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Polonia Warszawa23 October 2026
- W3-0Stal Mielec17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Odra Opole11 October 2026
What these results say
- Puszcza Niepołomice conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Puszcza Niepołomice scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Puszcza Niepołomice had three goals or more.
- Miedz Legnica failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Miedz Legnica scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Miedz Legnica conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 14 |
| 8 | Miedz Legnica | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 13 | +7 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Miedz Legnica
- 24 May 2026Miedz Legnica 2–1 Puszcza NiepołomiceI Liga
- 21 November 2025Puszcza Niepołomice 1–3 Miedz LegnicaI Liga
- 6 March 2022Miedz Legnica 3–1 Puszcza NiepołomiceI Liga
- 20 August 2021Puszcza Niepołomice 0–1 Miedz LegnicaI Liga
- 19 May 2021Puszcza Niepołomice 0–1 Miedz LegnicaI Liga
- 16 October 2020Miedz Legnica 1–1 Puszcza NiepołomiceI Liga
The result against the call
Puszcza Niepołomice and Miedz Legnica drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Puszcza Niepołomice at 38% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: M. Bochnak 28' for Miedz Legnica, M. Cholewiak 50' for Puszcza Niepołomice.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Puszcza Niepołomice a 25.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 19.4% after a win, 26.8% after a draw, 29.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 26.8%, 1.6 points higher than before the match.
For Miedz Legnica the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 13.6% going in: 17.7% after a win, 12.0% after a draw, 10.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 12.0%, 1.6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our I Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.