6 November 2026, 19:30 UTC

Odra Opole vs Unia Skierniewice I Liga prediction & result

Itaka Arena, Opole
Referee: S. Krasny
Full time3 – 5

Final score: Odra Opole 3-5 Unia Skierniewice.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Odra Opole, 31% draw, 30% Unia Skierniewice — fair odds of 2.56, 3.23 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Odra Opole at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Odra Opole3%Draw94%Unia Skierniewice3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 8 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽K. Palacz
17'
N. Mijuskovic
19'
J. Piroch
41'
47'
M. Stepien
M. Nalepa
49'
57'
⚽D. Gaskaassist: J. Mierzwa
58'
🔁B. Eizenchartout: L. Wolsztynski
🔁J. Perezout: M. Feliks
58'
60'
M. Szmyd
62'
⚽J. Mierzwaassist: B. Bida
70'
⚽B. Bida (pen)
🔁T. Gajdaout: A. Liber
71'
🔁K. Palaczout: F. Kupczyk
71'
🔁B. Baranskiout: M. Stas
71'
73'
D. Gaska
75'
🔁D. Gaskaout: D. Makuch
75'
🔁A. Burkiewiczout: S. Dudek
🔁S. Gierobaout: B. Spacil
75'
⚽M. Feliks (pen)
84'
84'
🔁M. Szmydout: O. Gavrylenko
84'
🔁B. Bidaout: M. Szczepanski
⚽B. Spacilassist: B. Biedrzycki
86'
B. Spacil
87'
87'
O. Gavrylenko
B. Biedrzycki
90'
90+3'
⚽M. Stepienassist: O. Gavrylenko
90+5'
⚽M. Szczepanskiassist: L. Wolsztynski

Line-ups

Odra Opole
Coach: Piotr Plewnia
Unia Skierniewice
Coach: Kamil Socha

Form going into Odra Opole vs Unia Skierniewice

Odra Opole

I Liga

  • L0-3away to Polonia Bytom2 November 2026
  • L0-1Pogoń Siedlce25 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Ruch Chorzów16 October 2026
  • W1-0Miedz Legnica11 October 2026

Unia Skierniewice

I Liga

  • L2-3away to Lechia Gdansk31 October 2026
  • L1-2Polonia Bytom24 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Warta Poznań16 October 2026
  • D2-2Nieciecza10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Odra Opole failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Odra Opole failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Odra Opole conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Unia Skierniewice did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Unia Skierniewice conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Unia Skierniewice scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Odra Opole143381121-1012
17Unia Skierniewice144282026-614

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

Unia Skierniewice won 5–3 at Odra Opole. The model had leaned towards a win for Odra Opole at 39% and given a win for Unia Skierniewice 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: K. Palacz 17' for Odra Opole, D. Gaska 57' for Unia Skierniewice, J. Mierzwa 62' for Unia Skierniewice, B. Bida (penalty) 70' for Unia Skierniewice, M. Feliks (penalty) 84' for Odra Opole, B. Spacil 86' for Odra Opole, M. Stepien 90+3' for Unia Skierniewice, M. Szczepanski 90+5' for Unia Skierniewice.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Odra Opole a 61.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 54.0% after a win, 64.9% after a draw, 70.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 70.6%, 8.9 points higher than before the match.

For Unia Skierniewice the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 61.7% going in: 51.8% after a win, 61.3% after a draw, 69.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 51.8%, 9.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our I Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Odra Opole v Unia Skierniewice has moved

First published on 23 Oct at 42% / 32% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 39% / 31% / 30%: the biggest move is Unia Skierniewice's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Odra Opole win39%▼ −3
  2. Draw31%▼ −1
  3. Unia Skierniewice win30%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.